Before we jump into things, there are a few pitchers with some slight injury concerns. Jorge De La Rosa was taken out of his last start with a finger issue, but is still scheduled to make his two starts this week. Jaime Garcia is not, he was scheduled for Tuesday-Sunday, but has been scratched from his Tuesday start. Justin Verlander was pushed back, giving him two starts this week, but just keep an eye out on the injury report.
|
Pitcher |
Opponents |
|
Sonny Gray |
COL, SEA |
|
Cole Hamels |
MIL, @ATL |
|
Gerrit Cole |
@DET, CLE |
|
Shelby Miller |
WAS, PHI |
|
Jordan Zimmermann |
@ATL, SFG |
|
Danny Salazar |
@TB, @PIT |
|
Carlos Carrasco |
@TB, @PIT |
|
C.J. Wilson |
NYY, @TEX |
|
Clay Buchholz |
@TOR, HOU |
|
Rubby De La Rosa |
LAD, COL |
|
Phil Hughes |
@CIN, @KC |
|
Nate Karns |
CLE, @NYY |
|
Jimmy Nelson |
@PHI, @CIN |
|
Mike Leake |
MIN, MIL |
|
Colby Lewis |
@BAL, LAA |
|
Ian Kennedy |
SEA, @STL |
|
R.A. Dickey |
BOS, @DET |
|
Lance McCullers |
KC, @BOS |
|
Kyle Hendricks |
@NYM, MIA |
|
Danny Duffy |
@HOU, MIN |
|
Wandy Rodriguez |
@BAL, LAA |
|
Mike Bolsinger |
@ARI, NYM |
|
Mike Pelfrey |
@CIN, @KC |
|
Marco Estrada |
BOS, @DET |
|
Jorge De La Rosa |
@OAK, @ARI |
|
Ryan Vogelsong |
@MIA, @WAS |
|
Justin Verlander |
PIT, TOR |
|
Kendall Graveman |
COL, SEA |
|
Taylor Jungmann |
@PHI, @CIN |
|
Eduardo Rodriguez |
@TOR, HOU |
Tier One
Last week featured a list of top aces for two-starts, we will shrink the list down this week for tier one. Sonny Gray headlines the tier one section, with the sixth best ERA in the majors. He has been lights out for Oakland, with a 2.69 FIP, and an 8.1 K/9. He will face the Rockies and the Mariners both at home this week in very favorable matchups. Cole Hamels also gets the bottom of the league offenses for both starts, he faces the Braves, and the Brewers. While he could be out of Philly very shortly, he can still take advantage of some weak NL opponents. Gerrit Cole is going to have two starts this week to set himself from the pack as a pitcher. After struggling against the Reds, he will face the Tigers and Indians. They rank in the top 15 in offense, while Cole is putting together a Cy Young like season. If it wasn’t for that pesky Max Scherzer, he would have my vote. Cole has a 2.16 ERA, and a 9.6 K/9 this season. Looking into the Tigers matchup, I see the Tigers offense as a good one, but not one to scare me off of Cole. First, Cole keeps the ball in the yard, which is important against some of these bats. Second, he will need to keep guys off base in front of the big three. Both sides of the plate are hitting .240 or less, we saw the trouble Hamilton caused to start the game, and Anthony Gose is a similar player. Just 25 walks in 95 innings, Cole does a solid job of making teams earn it, and for the most part they haven’t. The second matchup he will face the Indians, at home, and he has been tough on lefties this year. He is allowing a .262 wOBA, and has a .243 FIP. Once again, I am not worried. Fire up Cole for both starts.
Tier Two
A lot of gems this week in tier two, and a few Cleveland pitchers will make two starts. Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar both matchup against Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh. Both are pesky offenses at times, but for the most part rank closer to average. Both have been up and down this season, while I expected more of that from Salazar, Carrasco had a poor performance against the Rays last time out. Then he holds the Tigers to two runs over eight innings, with seven strikeouts. Neither matchup will keep me away from starting either, but just expect the up and down starts from time to time. Shelby Miller and Jordan Zimmermann both faces bottom of the league offenses, Miller will faces the Phillies, while then pitching against the Nationals. Zimmermann faces the Braves, and then the Giants. The Giants matchup is an interesting one, they have the second best wRC+ against right-handed pitching in baseball, and thrive when they get on the road. They only have a 17.4% strikeout rate, so there is no upside for Zimmermann in this matchup. You don’t have to sit him, but I don’t see him gaining a lot from this start, while he may even hurt WHIP or ERA. Clay Buchholz is a risky start for both, facing the Blue Jays in the Rogers Centre, and the Astros at home. Houston has a 26% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, so plenty of K upside in that one, but as good as he has pitched he could be in for a below average week.
Tier Three
Plenty of streamers in this tier, and I am looking towards Taylor Jungmann from the Milwaukee Brewers. He faces the Phillies on the road, and the Reds on the road, both rank in the bottom half, while Philly is dead last versus right-handed pitching. He has a 2.74 ERA over four starts, with a 3.19 FIP. He even went into Coors and got a win, which is impressive. He has a solid 56% groundball rate, and he pounds the strike zone. He has already looked better than the Milwaukee pitchers so far this season, but the two matchups provide quite the upside for him. With Giancarlo Stanton going down, the Marlins are now a team to pick on until he returns. They were not very good with him, but taking out the league’s home run leader is devastating. Ryan Vogelsong will make a one and done start this week, he can sit against the Nationals. Another one and done is Mike Bolsinger, he can sit against Arizona, and fire him up against the Mets. The last streaming option is Kyle Hendricks, for the Chicago Cubs, he faces the Phillies and the Mets this week. They both rank in the bottom five against right-handed pitching, and Hendricks is just average enough to be a solid play. He has a 3.71 FIP, to go with an ERA of 4.46. He has had more good starts than bad ones, but the bad ones drive that ERA through the roof. He has shut down the teams he is expected to, that won’t change this week.
