Spring Training has finally rolled around, and I am in the best shape i've ever been in. Best shape to mock draft that is. I will be using FantasyPros' mock draft simulator, which you can find here. I have run a Yahoo and ESPN roster construction mock draft below, followed up by some analysis of my picks. For Yahoo, I picked second, and ESPN I picked sixth. Both are 12-team leagues.

Yahoo Mock Draft (2nd)

Position

Name

Round

C

Welington Castillo

17

1B

Jose Abreu

5

2B

Matt Carpenter

6

3B

Justin Turner

9

SS

Troy Tulowitzki

13

OF

Mookie Betts

1

OF

Ian Desmond

4

OF

Adam Eaton

8

UTIL

Hanley Ramirez

7

UTIL

Carlos Gomez

16

SP

Noah Syndergaard

2

SP

Corey Kluber

3

RP

Edwin Diaz

10

RP

David Robertson

12

P

Danny Salazar

11

P

Vincent Velasquez

14

P

Sean Manaea

15

P

Michael Pineda

18

BENCH

Joe Ross

21

BENCH

Ivan Nova

19

BENCH

Lucas Duda

22

BENCH

Michael Brantley

20

BENCH

Jacoby Ellsbury

24

BENCH

Josh Harrison

23

ESPN Mock Draft (6th)

Position

Name

Round

C

Yasmani Grandal

14

1B

Paul Goldschmidt

1

2B

Jason Kipnis

8

3B

Justin Turner

9

SS

Trevor Story

3

OF

J.D Martinez

4

OF

Andrew McCutchen

6

OF

Mark Trumbo

7

OF

Adam Eaton

10

OF

Dexter Fowler

16

1B/3B

Mike Napoli

20

2B/SS

Logan Forsythe

17

UTL

Nick Castellanos

21

P

Madison Bumgarner

2

P

Stephen Strasburg

5

P

Michael Fulmer

11

P

Kelvin Herrera

12

P

Matt Harvey

13

P

Aaron Nola

15

P

Vincent Velasquez

18

P

Ryan Madson

19

P

Cam Bedrosian

22

BENCH

Jacoby Ellsbury

23

BENCH

Ivan Nova

24

BENCH

Travis D'Arnaud

25

This year I found myself taking upside over safety with pitching, and I believe a big reason for that is because there are more arms than usual with upside, yet injury downsides. The Phillies rotation is where you really see it. Grabbing Vincent Velasquez in both drafts made sense, but more so in the ESPN mock at a later round. Velasquez had his injury problems, but also was rather unlucky. He had a .325 BABIP, which should drop a tad in 2017. He had a 3.67 xFIP and a 3.62 SIERA, suggesting positive regression in 2017. His strikeout rate was top ten, if he finished as a qualified starter. That number was 27.6%, which was .1 better than Madison Bumgarner. I also went with a similar player in Danny Salazar in the 11th, who boasted the same strikeout rate, and was limited by injuries.

What do we make of Matt Harvey? Or how about the Mets rotation in general? All seem to have injury concerns, and it is hard to believe they all make it through the year clean. Given this is March 5th, I would like to see some positive velocity from Harvey, before I start to like where I got him. If you want the high risk reward, go for it. His ADP is reasonable at the moment, but you can make the argument to use the pick elsewhere.

I love stashing Ivan Nova late in drafts. He pitched very well in Pittsburgh, which many do. We have seen J.A. Happ clean up his game, as well as A.J. Burnett in the past. The same happened to Nova. He had a 3.13 xFIP in Pittsburgh, compared to a 4.08 xFIP in New York. The walk rate dropped, and as expected, his home runs allowed dropped. He is a great back back of the rotation guy.

If you miss out on the hot corner elites, Justin Turner is always there to save the day. After earning the starting role in 2016, he hit .275, drove in 90 runs, and hit 27 dingers. I have seen some expect a drop off to more around 20 homers, which is a possibility, but he is great value at the position for where he is being drafted.

Andrew McCutchen has been talked about for trades, but also talked about him starting an early downfall in his career. McCutchen's average was the biggest drop, dropping about 40 points from 2015. Home runs were there, hitting 24. 81 runs was a small drop from the previous two years as well. The difference between those years and this year, is ADP. He also could be moved this year, which may or may not help his value. The one thing for sure that is gone with Cutch, is his ability to steal 20+ bases.

Can Mark Trumbo follow up a monster 2016? 47 home runs was a career high for Trumbo, who also knocked in 108 RBI. We can realistically expect 30+ home runs if he is healthy, and a ceiling is more around the 40 mark, and not nearing 50. He hits in a very good division, and Camden yards is friendly as well. The offense is still dangerous around him, which makes me believe 90 RBI and 80 runs are a good mark. A career .250 hitter isn't going to move anywhere but down at this point in his career, but we are probably a few years away from that anyway.