ender - how do you explain the fact that Abreu has never finished higher than 14th best hitter and never in the top 20 overall players before last yr at the age of 31 - yet now, after finishing 6th overall in '04, he is considered a top 10 pick
Take a look at his career. His AVG last year was right where it should be. His SB's were slightly high but the team ran more in general, I see that as a trend not an abberation. His R's were a career high which is not surprising with Thome batting behind him and given the fact he walks a lot it should be repeated. His RBI are up but again thats to be expected. Rollins finally took off and the phillies 1/2 hitters in general were much better last year. That leaves HR as the only question mark.
His last few years of HR have been 20, 25, 31, 20. 20, 30 so you have to assuming he'll get between 20 and 30 HR. I'm a big believer that the new ballpark favors HR and his home vs road splits would seem to indicate thats true last year. I pencil him in for 25-30 HR.
So I think you are looking at .300 avg, 25 hr, 115 R, 105 RBI, 35 SB for him this year if you want a pretty safe projection.
Beltran moved to a pitchers park with a big contract that may or may not cut down on his basestealing, he's also likely batting in the middle of the lineup which will cut down on his SB. He's in a pretty weak lineup and is likely to lose R/RBI chances because of it, especially once piazza gets hurt. Beltran's safe projections for me are something like... .270, 34 hr, 105 R, 100 RBI, 30 SB.
Abreu very well could have as good a year as Beltran in my book. I don't think Abreu is the 6th best hitter in baseball, but he's one of the 2 best proven 5 tool players in baseball (beltran is 4 tool with that low avg, which very well may go up this year) and I think that says a lot. He's had solid years 6 years in a row and is in the strongest lineup he's ever seen in a park that favors hitters much more than his old one.
I'll still take beltran ahead of abreu because of his upside. The next choice after Abreu for me would be manny ramirez or bonds probably, but for my money in fantasy I prefer the 5 tool players to the 4 tools. Having a 30 SB power hitter means you don't have to get a 3 tool SB guy like crawford or pierre.