bleach168 wrote:Here we go...
Typically, when a person prepares for an auction draft, he devotes 60-70% of his money towards hitting. The reason they spend twice as much on hitting than pitching is because hitting is just more predictable than pitching.
However, we are looking at past results which means we have perfect clarity. With perfect clarity, you need to have a 50:50 split because pitching and hitting both comprise 50% of your overall score.
This is where Rototimes tricks you into thinking Ichiro is worth almost as much as Santana in 2004. If you look at the fine print on the previous year's ratings you will find,The table below presents both dollar values and net standings points broken down by category. A 169.000000 to 91.000000 hitting to pitching spending breakdown was assumed, and average league differential spreads in the categories were used.
For some reason, this was omitted in the 2004 ratings.
Remember, even Rototimes admits that owning Santana probably netted you +9.51 points in the standings and Ichiro netted you +5.73 points. Isn't that what matters the most?
As a side note, Manny netted you +4.53. So saying Manny + Ichiro = Santana or 4.53 + 5.73 = 9.51 is fairly accurate.
I'm sorry but Santana was not worth 2 Ichiros. This is not just because pitching is unpredictable. It's because it's less valuable.
Pitchers, as a whole, sell for lot less in auction drafts (like you mentioned, the 68/32 split most places use for various reasons) so all pitchers were available at "discounts" if that's the way you want to look at it. He's only as valuable as much as he helps relative to others at his position. Since all other SP's were cheaper relative to the player rater, replacing Santana's stats would not have costed twice as much as it would have to replace Ichiro's stats. However this is what the player rater would have you believe. In actuality they were very close in value.
So sorry, but this twice as valuable idea is not going to fly. Like I said... find somebody credible to back it up and I'll give it more of a thought. I can go ask Todd Zola if you'd like that... he's one of the top valuation experts in the business.