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BurlyMan wrote:Hmm....so you would take Johan Santana instead of 2 Ichiros?
The player rater might say that makes sense, but that sense is lost on me. With 2 Ichiros you trade one to fill another need (maybe a power hitter, or solid starter). So, instead of Santana, you have Ichiro AND a good starter or Ichiro AND a power hitter. Seems to me you are adding far more value to your team by adding to almost every category.
I have to disagree on upside in the case of Santana. We just saw one of the greatest 2nd halves, in pitching terms, in modern history. He won the Cy Young award. To me, "upside" means he can improve his statistics relative to the previous year, and considering what he just did, simply a repeat would be phenomenal. Unless you think he will post a sub 2 ERA, in what way can he possibly top 2004? He won't start as bad, I can see that...but nor will he finish as lights-out. In what areas do you see his 2005 numbers topping his 2004?
BurlyMan wrote:I do get your point...though guys like Sweeny and Palmeiro aren't good examples since they're both old and declining whereas Santana and Ichiro are not.
You said Ichiro normally goes 5-10 picks after Santana, and you want me to explain why I would take 2 Ichiros over Santana:
If someone takes Santana #1, then I pick at 7/8 (impossible of course, but this is a theoretical argument anyways) and take my back-to-back Ichiros. Then I'm going to pick again at 17 and you pick again at 24. So, all I'm saying is I get more value here. You get picks 1 and 24. I get 7, 8, 17. I get 3 of the first 17 picks. If Ichiro goes 5-10 picks after Santana, then yes, I would rather have 2 late 1st rounders than one #1 pick. Of course, this is based on saying Santana is worth more than 2 Ichiros.
No, Johnson is not a value pick either, not at all, never claimed he was. Just said I'd probably draft him over Santana by a little.
beltrans_boy wrote:mtarail wrote:What about a year and a half? Santana has been posting rock solid numbers since he became a starter after the '03 all-star break.
Apparently you missed the first half of last season. His numbers were far from "rock solid"
fantasyfiend wrote:Johan Santana's performance (statistically) last season (in a 5x5 league) was worth 2 ichiro's combined.
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