I don't see Johnson slipping quite that far which leaves you with Schmidt and perhaps Sheets (if you don't 'need' W!) or Perez (ibid) and Prior if you REALLY stretch it and think that he's back to his '03 form and will throw a lot of CG to keep it out of the hands of the pen. OTOH, depending on which way the first few rounds break, you should be able to have at least someone of the caliber of Crawford/ Abreu/ MRamirez/ Soriano/ Helton/Tejada/ maybe even Bonds still on the board for the taking.
All of whom I'd pick (particularly Helton, if you are using BB as he gets a lot of them AND plays every day and hit .326 away from Coors...yeah, 1B is pretty deep but he's an amazing hitter...he may be gone though...depending on how much deeply the other owners scout) over one of the top-non Schmidt. If the Unit and Schmidt are there and you take both of them, you should have monster pitching but will be scrambling the rest of the draft for big hitters. A lot of the guys w/ pop farther down also strikeout a lot more than the guys at the top of the list and will kill you in K (like Soriano...). It could work out for you though.
I'd rather go for a more balanced approach and have an ace pitcher and a really solid hitter, perhaps looking at OBP or OPS to find some pop AND some BB without as many K to pair with Schmidt? FWIW, the Yahoo scouting blurb today has Schmidt being in excellent shape. Just like everybody else so far!!
FWIW, rotochamps has the top picks ordered Vlad, Santana, Pujols, Beltran, Unit, ARod, Bonds, Abreu, Ramirez, Tejada, Schmidt, Crawford, Sheffield, Sheets. That woudl leave you w/ Tejada and Schmidt. A very nice combo. The Yahoo Orank for our league (using 13x13 scoring...) comes up w/ ARod, Pujols, Vlad, Beltran, Tejada, Soriano, Abreu, Santana, Unit, MRam, Crawford, Bonds which would leave Schmidt on the board and I think that going down a couple to pair him w/ Manny is a good move.