ARod above Beltran. What has Beltran proved? He IS a 40-40 threat but I dont see it happening. He has hit over 30HR once. He hit below .270 last year. He is now in his prime, but has moved from a huge hitting park in Minute Maid to a pitcher's park in Shea. He isnt surrounded by Bagwell, Berkman, Biggio, etc. He is now surrounded by Piazza, Matsui, Reyes, Cameron, etc. I would say its a bit of a downgrade. His walks should increase, average is lucky to increase since he has proven in the past to be an aggressive swinger. When pitchers start pitching around him, he is more likely to start swinging at bad pitches. I think he is a top 4 pick, but is it worth the risk when ARod is available? ARod will hit 40HR and steal 20+, along with 100+runs and 110+RBI. People are hoping Beltran goes .290 37HR 100+runs 100+RBI and 35+SB. Id say thats a huge year and a bit unlikely. ARod is a guarantee to have a great year. Early picks are about guarantees, Id take ARod.