I'm wondering if anyone can attest to a kind of draft auction inflation I am anticipating in my league's upcoming draft.
This is the third year of our league's existence (14 teams, 5x5 league). Last year was the first year we drafted auction style with each team operating under a $260 spending budget. Most of the superstars (ARod, Vlad, Soriano) went in the $40-45 range.
This year, each team may retain 4 players for a 10% increase in their draft price from last year.
Our commisioner has asked for everyone to whittle their choices down to 6 before declaring the final 4 keepers.
In this whittling down process, I am seeing that pretty much everyone is taking the route of retaining their budget buys--guys they drafted for $1-5. I don't have a lot of cheap players; my current keeper list is Manny $40 (prices reflect the 10% increase) D Lee $28, Mulder $22, Pudge $22, Sabathia $11, and Casey Blake $2.
What I am anticipating as a result of this being our first draft with keepers and with almost every team keeping their bargain buys, is that the price for the superstars is going to go way up...I'm thinking the top guys are going to go for $45-50 this year--and as a result I would be smarter to keep Manny rather than throw him back into the pool where I would surely not be able to re-draft him for $40.
Is this faulty reasoning? Has anyone experienced a draft in which the first year of keepers elevated the prices of the superstars substantially? Should I follow the trend and only keep Blake and Sabathia rather than retain my higher priced guys?