Yoda wrote:looptid wrote:Hafner was 27 last year. Morneau was 23.
In a keeper league, I would take Morneau. Hafner had an amazing year last season, but it is probably right around his peak value, where Morneau should continue to progress for the next few seasons. Hafner is in the middle of typical peak years for hitters (27-31), while Morneau is still a few years out.
As for this season, I don't see Morneau hitting for as high an average as Hafner (or putting up a comperable on-base percentage), but 35-plus homeruns are well within reason. Morneau hit a homerun in 6.7% of his plate apperances last season. If he gets 600 plate apperances and makes no improvement on last year's pace, it would round out to 41 dingers. If the Twins are smart and place Stewart, Ford, and Mauer in front of Morneau, a .380 OBP being the worst posted among that trio last season, Morneau should have plenty of men on base for those 35+ blasts. Of course there is no guarentee that Gardenhire won't do something stupid like place Jones and Hunter among the top three spots in the order.
Two words: Josh Phelps. You have to be real careful when you start extrapolating stats.
Morneau has been touted as one of the best hitters in the minors for the past few years, if not THE best hitter in the minors. Phelps was only touted because he was a catcher, and for a catcher, he puts up good numbers. Too bad he plays DH now.