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Postby nikku88 » Sat Feb 19, 2005 5:04 am

I agree that Iguchi should be a good value, but I think his numbers will take a hit.

Hideki in his last season in Japan went
runs -HR-RBI
112 - 50 - 107 .334 .461 .692 1.153

first year in MLB
82 - 16 - 106 .287 .353 .435 .788

That's a big drop in power.
He did become a very good player in his 2nd year, so he needed that time to adjust to MLB pitching.

Kaz in Japan:
104 - 33 - 84 .305 .365 .549

in MLB
65 - 7 - 44 .272 .331 .396

I think lots of Iguchi's power will be gone in his rookie season.
My apologies. I have a nephew named Anfernee, and I know how mad he gets when I call him Anthony. Almost as mad as I get when I think about the fact that my sister named him Anfernee.
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Postby SHOCKandAWE » Sun Feb 20, 2005 2:30 am

In an auction he will probably be over valued just like most first years phenoms when they come to the MLB
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Postby Amazinz » Sun Feb 20, 2005 2:38 am

There is no way Iguchi steals 50+ bags. He won't even sniff it. Look at Kaz who is also very fast (he stole 50-60 in Japan two seperate years). He needed to be taught how to steal and run the bases properly. Japanese baseball has come a long way but there is still a big gap between it and the MLB. Iguchi has stolen 40+ bases twice and last year he stole 18. This guy is worth a flier as a backup 2B just because of the unknown factor. Heck why not take a shot. But I wouldn't draft him expecting the next Ichiro. ;-)
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Postby stumpak » Sun Feb 20, 2005 11:05 am

I would draft him expecting maybe Kaz Matsui circa 2004. He may steal a few more bases because Guillen seems so dead set on running, but he will also be hitting 9th in all likelihood meaning run production numbers will be worse.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Feb 20, 2005 11:26 am

BaseballPrimer's got some pretty good japan to US translations and they see Iguchi as:

Iguchi, Tadahito - 2005 ZiPS Projection
480 74 135 30 2 12 62 58 90 17 .281 .363 .427

As with other from Japan, there's no way they maintain their power and US ball steals much less, so that drops, too. Expect a 40-50 point batting average drop.

Still, those are pretty good numbers at a pretty thin position.
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