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ichiro vs. crawford

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Postby looptid » Thu Feb 17, 2005 10:41 am

Mookie4ever wrote:...all of the talk in this thread about Crawford having a power advantage nobody has mentioned that Ichiro had a better SLG %.


You know SLG counts singles, right? And Ichrio had a whopping two extra base hits in September?

2004 Isolated Power
Crawford - .154
Ichiro - .083

Ichiro's batting average was 76 points higher than Crawford's, but Ichiro only out slugged him by 5 points. Crawford displayed twice as much power as Ichiro did last season.

That is unless you consider singles to be demonstrative of a player's power.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Feb 17, 2005 11:00 am

Let me ask you guys a question regarding this - Im of the opinion that a player's value changes based on whether the league is H2H or roto. Since most of this discussion is based on roto scoring - would any of you have a different opinion if it were a h2h league?
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Postby Mookie4ever » Thu Feb 17, 2005 11:11 am

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Let me ask you guys a question regarding this - Im of the opinion that a player's value changes based on whether the league is H2H or roto.


Of course. In H2H a double and a strike out in 2 AB is worth the same as 2 singles (assuming that none of them drove in a run). In roto the 2 singles are more valuable.

In H2H Tony Batista, Mark Bellhorn, Dave Roberts actually have some value and Dunn becomes a star.


Cornbread Maxwell wrote: Since most of this discussion is based on roto scoring - would any of you have a different opinion if it were a h2h league?


I would still take Ichiro first in H2H but it is much closer. SB are not as valuable in H2H and they are right together in RBI and Runs.

In H2H both of them fall much further down the rankings behind the likes of Manny and Sheffield.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Feb 17, 2005 11:16 am

Mookie4ever wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Let me ask you guys a question regarding this - Im of the opinion that a player's value changes based on whether the league is H2H or roto.


Of course. In H2H a double and a strike out in 2 AB is worth the same as 2 singles (assuming that none of them drove in a run). In roto the 2 singles are more valuable.

In H2H Tony Batista, Mark Bellhorn, Dave Roberts actually have some value and Dunn becomes a star.


Cornbread Maxwell wrote: Since most of this discussion is based on roto scoring - would any of you have a different opinion if it were a h2h league?


I would still take Ichiro first in H2H but it is much closer. SB are not as valuable in H2H and they are right together in RBI and Runs.

In H2H both of them fall much further down the rankings behind the likes of Manny and Sheffield.


Im not so sure about that 1st part Mookie - I think you are tallking about h2h points based leagues, but Im referring to h2h5x5 style.

In h2h 5x5 Im of the opinion that BA should be discounted since a weekly cumulative total has much more fluctuation in it. Also - how can you say SBs are discounted in a h2h league - Id say they are actually more valuable in weekly tabulations - the elite SB threats should be worth more - not less.
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Postby Mookie4ever » Thu Feb 17, 2005 11:27 am

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
Mookie4ever wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Let me ask you guys a question regarding this - Im of the opinion that a player's value changes based on whether the league is H2H or roto.


Of course. In H2H a double and a strike out in 2 AB is worth the same as 2 singles (assuming that none of them drove in a run). In roto the 2 singles are more valuable.

In H2H Tony Batista, Mark Bellhorn, Dave Roberts actually have some value and Dunn becomes a star.


Cornbread Maxwell wrote: Since most of this discussion is based on roto scoring - would any of you have a different opinion if it were a h2h league?


I would still take Ichiro first in H2H but it is much closer. SB are not as valuable in H2H and they are right together in RBI and Runs.

In H2H both of them fall much further down the rankings behind the likes of Manny and Sheffield.


Im not so sure about that 1st part Mookie - I think you are tallking about h2h points based leagues, but Im referring to h2h5x5 style.

In h2h 5x5 Im of the opinion that BA should be discounted since a weekly cumulative total has much more fluctuation in it. Also - how can you say SBs are discounted in a h2h league - Id say they are actually more valuable in weekly tabulations - the elite SB threats should be worth more - not less.


You're right - I was only talking about points leagues.

For H2H roto scoring I don't know whether their value changes. Ichiro's BA didn't fluctuate last year - he was .321 for the first half and then .429 in the second. I guess a week going .300 was a down week for him but in the second half he pretty much earned you one cat every week by himself.

So I really don't know whether that changes his value at all.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Thu Feb 17, 2005 12:44 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:In h2h 5x5 Im of the opinion that BA should be discounted since a weekly cumulative total has much more fluctuation in it. Also - how can you say SBs are discounted in a h2h league - Id say they are actually more valuable in weekly tabulations - the elite SB threats should be worth more - not less.
Cornbread how can you say BA should be discounted in H2H cause it has more fluctuation but not SB. Both are extremely streaky IMO. I think SB should be even more because teams can play matchups more and guys that you wouldn't want to own in a roto league can be inserted to pick up some cheap SB when you need them.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Feb 17, 2005 12:50 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:In h2h 5x5 Im of the opinion that BA should be discounted since a weekly cumulative total has much more fluctuation in it. Also - how can you say SBs are discounted in a h2h league - Id say they are actually more valuable in weekly tabulations - the elite SB threats should be worth more - not less.
Cornbread how can you say BA should be discounted in H2H cause it has more fluctuation but not SB. Both are extremely streaky IMO. I think SB should be even more because teams can play matchups more and guys that you wouldn't want to own in a roto league can be inserted to pick up some cheap SB when you need them.


well thats just my .02, but I think that the stud SB guys like Crawford and Pierre's value actually increases. Im just going under the premise that the top counting cat players are more valuable. Very true about playing matchups though - Dave Roberts value certainly increases in a h2h league. Good point.
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Postby mtarail » Thu Feb 17, 2005 7:53 pm

Ichiro. I agree pretty much with everything Mookie said. A few points.

1. Ichiro's steals have been pretty consistent over the last 3 years (31, 34, 36) despite the huge loss of supporting bats that Seattle had last year. So I don't see how the influx of big bats in Seattle is gonna hurt his steal #'s.

2. Crawford may get 20 HR's this year, but I doubt it. But even if he does, power hitters are a dime a dozen. The real question here, IMO, is which is more valuable... 30 additional steals for Crawford vs. 40-60 additional BA points and 15 additional runs for Ichiro.

I'd rather have Ichiro and pick up a guy like Patterson or Pods much later in the draft to seal the steals category.
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Postby looptid » Thu Feb 17, 2005 8:29 pm

Skippyoz wrote:3. If Crawford hits for 20+ HR this year, then his SB should go down, as I eluded to in an earlier post.


AVG
20 - .259
21 - .281
22 - .296

OBP
20 - .290
21 - .309
22 - .331

I would argue that Crawford hasn't peaked as a professional hitter at age 22 (most hitters don't until ages 27 to 31), and that his average and on-base percentage will increase in 2005, just like they have the last two seasons. Crawford hit 11 homeruns last season. If he hits 20 this year, he'll only need to get on base an extra 9 more times than he did in 2004 to have the same number of opportunities to steal. Crawford has also improved his discipline at the plate the last two years (and again, he was a rookie three years ago, so it as not as if he's ever failed to get better):

BB/K
20 - 0.21
21 - 0.25
22 - 0.43

While those aren't stellar, most guys Crawford's age are doing well if they've made it out of AA.
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Postby HOOTIE » Thu Feb 17, 2005 9:18 pm

nikku88 wrote:
HOOTIE wrote:One word of caution with Ichiro in a keeper. Once his speed goes, he's a 280 hitter, because he gets 60 infield hits a year that will turn to outs.


I think Ichiro is talented enough to adjust when that happens. His game plan now is to use his speed and slap at the ball. If he can't beat them out I think he will change. Will he be as good? Probably not, but I think he can still hit .300 then.



The only thing i'm saying is his whole game is based on speed, from his infield hits inflating his average alot, to his sb. Once his legs go, how valuable is a 290 10 hr, 10 sb guy?
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