Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Absolutely Adequate wrote:Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Id draft Bonderman before both Barcia and Buehrle - no offense to those two pitchers, but thats what park effect does to a pitcher.
If you do draft Garcia and Buehrle, make sure you never ever play them at home.
Garcia - 5.37 ERA/ 1.4 WHIP
Buehrle - 5.02 ERA/ 1.42 WHIP
Why would you take Bonderman over those two? What makes you think his stats will be any better than the home stats for Garcia/Buehrle? At least with those guys you can play them half the time. Bonderman will put up a 5 era at home and on the road.
Upside. Im sure you know the story by now AA. Bonderman had a terrific 2nd half, he's always been projected as a #1 SP, he was called up much much too early and is just now getting to where he should be. I dont see an ERA under 4 - dont get me wrong - he still has some growing he needs to get though - but then again, he is only 22. Most places have Bondo tagged as a sleeper this yr, based solely on his 2nd half split and the upside scouts had him tagged for. He's definitely a risky pick though. About as much risk as Buehrle and Garcia, but with much greater upside.
That's what everyone keeps telling me about Bonderman. I don't buy it. Have you looked closely at his 2nd half splits? He was facing triple-A competition. How many times in a row can a guy face the Royals.
Here's something I wrote earlier, which mostly applies:
Arroyo. If you can only keep Bonderman one more year, I'd go with the guy that will be better this year.
And that's Arroyo.
The reason that people expect Bonderman to break out this year is because he had a nice 2nd half of the season last year. He had a post all-star break era of 3.70. It's not bad. But...
He's a pitcher that - at this point in his career - isn't good enough to fool hitters twice. Amongst all the teams he faced twice or more last year, he had a sub-4 era against 3 of them. And Oakland, Seattle, and Tampa Bay weren't offensive powerhouses.
What's more, the month that brought his era down to the level of respectablity was September when he had a 2.53 era. He played Tampa Bay twice, the White Sox, Cleveland, Kansas City, and Baltimore. And Cleveland hit him pretty hard.
In the long run, I have no doubt that Bonderman will be the better pitcher. But this year? Arroyo. Probably next year too.