Lofunzo wrote:lesgrant wrote:Your IP, ERA and BAA numbers are, in part, from the bullpen. You cannot say he has a 3 year track record as a starter. He doesn’t. He’s only been in the rotation for a year and a half.
Santana was special last year. We, unfortunately, are in an era of hype where one year = a player’s entire career – for better or worse. He had a blistering second half which, chances are (factoring in every performance by every pitcher in the history of MLB) he won’t repeat. There is a high probability that his numbers will dip considerably.
Conversely with RJ, you can go back year after year after year after year as see, pretty much, the same dominant performance. When Santana spends a couple of years as a SP and duplicates last years numbers, then we can say that’s the type of player he is.
I could have made your same argument for Roy Halliday last winter. Many made the same argument for Prior. Look how both of those guys turned out. If you used your imagination/listened to the hype on either of them, you would have been sorry.
1 thing to consider though is that it's just 1 pick. I'm not saying that it's not important because it obviously is but I guarantee you that I can compete for a title this season if I take Kaz Sasaki in the 1st round. If you look at most of the 1st rounders from last year, you will find some unhappy campers. I am comfident enough in my abilities that I can overcome a player or 2 going down. Look at last year. Everyone saying to wait on pitching last year had Mulder (or similar) anchoring their staff. If he goes down, you're cooked. It's all relative. That's all.
I totally agree that you can overcome a first or second round bomb.
But as Yoda said, the top two picks should be picks with the highest probability of dominance, not rolls of the dice.
The difference makers, I’ve found, always come in the middle rounds. It’s a given that the elite performers will go in the first. It’s much easier to overcome a middle round doh! than a top rounder simply because your competition will also be making similar sleeper gambles and stand a greater chance of blowing those picks than their earlier round picks.
It’s almost like making a pit-stop under the caution flag. You would lose much less time relative to everyone else because everyone is going at a slower rate of speed, as well as making pit-stops of their own for the same reason. (if any of that makes sense)