The Miner Part 2 wrote: GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:So, in short, I'd say a Sammy rebound, if it happens, is likely to be small. A small decline in BA, maybe a small bounce in R and RBI, and a medium drop in HRs is the likely outcome this year. And, I'd say the risk of a total freaking meltdown is much, much, higher than a return to stardom.
He's just the kind of high risk low reward older player I'll be letting others take the chance on for draft day.
What, you are unable to read?
so you see nothing wrong with projecting sosa to hit 245 with 35 homers, 90 rbis and 90 runs and then showing up and telling everyone that you were right about sosas terrible year? i mean this is a great deal for you, you win each way. way to go out on a limb there.
I'll write slow so your small bus brain can wrap around the main ideas. This is nothing that a 5 minute read of Baseball Prospectus or a very basic stat course wcould not teach, but as you seem unable to even grasp simple concepts, I'll try to keep it down below a third grade level.
Player predictions are not point estimates, they are distributions. To say someone is likely to hit 245-255, with 30-35 HRs tells you about the midpoint of that distribution. To say that he has a high probability to be significantly less than that and a low probability to be much above gives you an idea of the shape of the rest of the distribution. Smart people (hell, even those with an average IQ) understand and take advantage such information.
And then, there's people like you who find themselves stuck with Sammy Sosa.
I'll wait while you try to find pre-season estimates that predicted Sosa would be even worse than I did. So, yes, I'm happy that I was closer than pretty much anyone else and my friends and I benefitted from that, and even more happy that morons like you ignored it and were burned and remain bitter about it.