by **BobbyRoberto** » Fri Feb 04, 2005 1:38 am

My league uses TQSTATS and at the end of last season, I printed out all the $$ value numbers and point totals for the players in my league based on all of our specifics: stat categories, number of players per team, number of teams, etc. It's from Rototimes.

Then, for the next season, I figure out how they come up with their point totals for each player and create the formulas for each statistic in Excel. I don't bother with dollar values because it isn't an auction league, I use the point totals.

Now that I have the formulas that worked for the previous year, I plug in projections for the upcoming season and calcluate a total point value for each player. For the projections, so far this off-season, I've collected projections from the Bill James Handbook, Forecaster, Rototimes, RotoChamps, ZiPS (Baseball Think Factory) and PECOTA. It gets a little crazy having 6 sets of projections for each player, so in Excel, I have different worksheets for each position and I'll have the players '04 stats in one row, and the 6 projections in the next 6 rows. That's where I'm at right now. We won't draft until March 1, so I'll spend the next few weeks coming up with what I feel is a good projection, based on the 6 different projections I have now. Then I use the formulas for last year and each player will have a point total for '05.

Early in the draft, I'll go by overall point total while the big number guys are up there, and at some point I'll start looking at position scarcity. For position scarcity, I'll take the top 10 at each position (the # of teams in our league) and find the mean point total. Then each player will be ranked by how far above (or below) the mean they are.

During the actual draft, though, as most people know, you're making decisions on the fly. You have all your numbers and you know what you want to do, but you have to make decisions at times that are hard to make. Then it's just gut instinct, I think.

Roger Angell: I was talking with Bob Gibson and I said: 'Are you always this competitive?' He said: 'Oh, I think so. I got a three-year old daughter, and I've played about 500 games of tic-tac-toe with her and she hasn't beat me yet.'