Tavish wrote:Sure he still had the higher OPS, but the difference between the two is very small. A much higher portion of Pickering's OPS is generated from walks (as opposed to Harvey's), he generates a much higher amount of unproductive outs, and he creates a great deal higher amount of extra outs through his "ability" to ground into double plays. I'm not in any way claiming Harvey is better than Pickering, Harvey's second half slide was as frustrating as Pickering's slide. But Pickering wasn't more productive than Harvey, and most definitely not as productive overall as his final season stats show.
I agree that the difference is small, IF you bias the analysis against Pickering by not counting his best game. If you look at all their games or if you similarly remove a proportional sample of Harvey's best games, then once again there is a very large advantage for Pickering. On a fair playing field, in short, Pickering stomps Harvey's butt. The only way you can turn the analysis against Pickering is by unfairly ignoring a portion of his production while counting all of Harvey's.
That's clearly shown by the stats I posted.
A 79 point advantage in OPS is not "very small"
A 21 point advantage in EQA is not "very small"
A 12 point advantage in RARP per 500 ABs is not "very small"
You know what Harvey can do. He's going to hit for a high, but very empty average because he has no plate discipline and has no power.
Pickering will certainly ground into DPs, but unproductive outs is a load of BS. It contributes NOTHING to offense, as reams and reams of analysis as shown.
Pickering will hit for no less an OBP than Harvey, and there's a very good chance based on his past performance, that given a regular opportunity to hit, he could nearly match Harvey in BA and trounce him in OBP.
And there's simply no comparison between them in ability to hit for power.
Harvey was given 500 PAs last year and he ranked THIRTY-SECOND among all 1B in RARP. (that's last, in case that new math you are using decides to re-surface).
With that wonderful display of hitting ineptitude, what does KC have to lose in giving Pickering the chance to prove himself better?