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Playing by the halves.

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Postby sockeye » Wed Jan 26, 2005 3:49 am

LBJackal wrote:
davidmarver wrote:
LBJackal wrote:
davidmarver wrote:
LBJackal wrote:
davidmarver wrote:Fatigue is a real factor. How could you argue it doesn't happen to players like Pedro?

Pedro's monthly career splits:

June: 3.20 ERA
July: 3.08 ERA
August: 2.48 ERA
September: 2.76 ERA

That's some kinda monthly decline there :-?

He misses more starts though towards the end of the year, though. He always seems to finish with like 29 from missing 4 or 5 late season starts (except last year). His K's and wins are lower in September than any other month and his WHIP is higher than any other month. Not to mention he posts a modest 23-18 career September record (was 2-4 last September).

Correct me if I'm wrong, but ERA is what counts, and he is lower in August and September than in June and July. And in his entire career, he has 6 less starts in the finals 2 months as opposed ot the middle two months. That's practically nothing.

You may now resume removing your foot from your mouth :-D

I didn't know we were playing in a 5x1 league, where the only category is ERA. This topic is from a fantasy standpoint.

WHIP in the middle 2 months... 1.05
WHIP in the final 2 months... 1.04

W/GS in the middle 2 months... .54
W/GS in the final 2 moonths... .54

K/9 in the middle 2 months... 10.1
K/9 in the final 2 months... 10.5

So basically he's the same in W and WHIP, better in ERA and K's, and you're claiming he gets worse at the end of the year?

LBJ, you have me convinced. I think you only need part of your cunning for the rest of this thread.
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Postby ukrneal » Wed Jan 26, 2005 4:15 am

The evidence is not convincing to a latecomer:

1. Santana - heated up a month BEFORE the break, after a slow start probably caused by the surgery he had.
2. Nevin - You said stats declined in second half.
3. Sweeney - gets injured in all halves and ways - not applicable
4. Huff - slow start - no history of second half surge.
5. Lowell - here is someone who might fit your strategy.
6. Zito - bucked the trend.
7. Mulder - not sure what's happening with him!
8. Colon - switch of league may have caused the early plunge - second half is not all that great though.

Anyway, I didn't find this convincing as a strategy based on these players. And for one that does it, there is always another to buck the trend (Beltre, for example).

That said, I think being aware of such things can be quite important for some players. There ARE players who seem to do better in one half than another and surely you have to follow that. The problem I have with your argument is basing too much strategy off it as it can easily backfire.
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Postby wrveres » Wed Jan 26, 2005 6:39 am

I have drafted based upon splits before. But I did it in reverse. Barry Bonds and quite a few others are/were notorious slow starters. I targeted a bunch of those guys in a deep NL only league so I would start out close to last place for the first month or so. It allowed me to cherry pick the waiver wire for at least a month before my stats started climbing. I ended up winning by alot that season too....

hmmmm :-?
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