LBJackal wrote:davidmarver wrote:LBJackal wrote:davidmarver wrote:Secret Avatar wrote:"I'm just saying...the ability to bear down and play good, clutch baseball, is not luck."
Agreed 100 percent. In order for that argument to work for Peavey, though, he would have to do a MUCH better job of playing clutch baseball than any other pitcher in the league. Are you saying he has super-human mental fortitude?! He's better in the clutch than RJ, Schilling, the Rocket, or Pedro?! Every other pitcher, both in 2004 and just about anytime in baseball history, with a 1.20 WHIP has an ERA considerably higher than 2.27.
That's the bottom line: in order for Peavey's 2.27/1.20 to make sense as anything other than a statistical anomaly, he had to have done something in 2004 that no other pitcher did, and no other pitcher has ever done.
Here are those pitchers stats last year in (OBA with RISP, OBA with RISP and less than two outs)
Peavy : .185, .109
Johnson : .198, .163
Rocket : .193, .143
Schilling : .221, .192
Pedro : .197, .129
So there we have it. You figure a difference in .010 is the equivalent of one run. If he posted Schilling's #'s for here, his ERA would rise to 2.92.
Have I found the magic number?
If anything this should tell you how lucky he was.... I can't believe you're using this as evidence to prove it wasn't a fluke
I don't think there is a single way I could ever convince you the contrary, but I have provided numbers after numbers to support Peavy's continuance, while there have been very little numbers to the contrary.
You cannot argue against the RISP numbers. That is a measure of how clutch a player is.
Wow.... you're not getting my point. I know what Peavy did LAST YEAR, but he won't do taht NEXT YEAR which is the point. He probably won't have the same LUCK.
I don't know why you argue that he didn't benefit greatly from luck.... have you done studies to see the control pitchers have over the stats you mention? Do you have reason to believe it? I'm finished discusiing Peavy... once you name your price for a wager, I'll continue again. Let's see how confident you really are in him.
I'm not going to put monetary value on it since there's no way to ensure you'll pay when I win...we could bet on signatures. You win, I put anything you want in mine...I win, vice versa.