Secret Avatar wrote:"I'm working on Beltran's projections right now, and I'm in this area with my stats, Cornbread. I have him at .310, 33 HR, 120 R, 95 RBI's, 40 SB."
310-120-95-33-40?! You're falling for the hype, dude. He's never hit 310 before. Ever. Nor has he ever hit more than 29 HRs before 2004. Yeah, he hit 38 last year but his BA collapsed to 267. 258 in Houston. Nor has he ever scored 120 runs. Not ever. Plus, he's only stole 40 bases or more twice in his career.
I thought I had heard the last of "Beltran never did that before so why now?" in 2003 when many said he couldn't hit 30 HR.
I do think that a .310 BA is abit of a reach, I have him pegged at .285. The rest of the numbers are not at all out of realm of possibility for Beltran. Runs can be a crapshoot, but he had over 120 last season and was constantly around 110 in the previous 3 seasons. Him posting another 120 is definitely doable. Again it is slightly higher than 115 I have him pegged at but not a major reach.
He has posted back to back 40 SB seasons so saying that his history doesn't support another 40 SB season doesn't really make much sense. If you want to base his SB numbers falling based on his new contract or a different team philosophy then you might have something.
HRs are probably the most difficult of his numbers to figure because of the move to the less friendly park. A great deal of his damage last year came away from the HR friendly Minute Maid (he only hit 7 of his 23 NL HR there) and his HR rate has increased steadily over the past 4 seasons. I think the move to Shea will stop him from ever making the 40-40 club, but 33 is a very reasonable projection.
Of course I would still give Vlad the nod, but only because I think last season was a warm-up for the numbers he will post in 2005.