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PostPosted: Sun Feb 12, 2006 8:38 pm
by klvrdude
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:One quick clarification, Elijah. It's not clear to me how you calculated the values for a replacement player. It sounds as if you took ALL players at the position below the level you set as the player sample selected in the league. That is, it sounds as if you calculate replacement by finding the average of all the players excluded from the league. That's likely to give you an underestimate of the replacement player's value. You want to use the "marginal" value rather than the average value. In other words, what you really want is the value of the player at thetop of the replacement list. Since any one player might not be representative, you probably do want to average, but I would average of the top 5 or 10 players left out of the league, rather than the entire excluded player group.

If I'm wrong in understanding your explanation, mea culpa.


1. I found this thread a few weeks back and I think its an excellent post for anyone new to auction league pricing!

2. GTW, I believe Elijah explains this in an early post (same thread) when he says:

[quote ="Elijah"]Also for Wyatt's question on calculating the replacements value:

What I found is that the last few guys to make the cut at any given position are more or less interchangeable, so I would use an average of the last 4 guys who made the cut to the player universe, and then the next best 4 guys who didn't. That should give you a good picture of what the average replacement at a given position would look like. [/quote]

3. Ender, you're right....and you're wrong, sorry. You're right in the global picture when you say 50 SB is the net result, but you have to think of it this way:

Say you have both an OF and a C who are both projected to steal 50 bases this year (remember if either one goes down mid season you can only replace them with someone of the same position eligibility). And if we pretend, for the sake of this example, that the average catcher only steals 4 bases a year and the average OF steals 12 bases, the difference between your catcher's 50 sb prediction and their replacement is 46 swipes, but the difference between your OF and their potential replacement is only 38, thus making the catcher's 50 more valuable b/c of the scarcity of SB from the catcher spot.

Or if you want to look at a different way, again using the pretend averages of catchers steal 4 bags a year and OF 12.

Team A:
C- 50 sb
OF- 12 sb

Team B:
C- 4 sb
OF - 50 sb

This would imply that the catcher's 50 sb on team A are more valuable b/c they came from a C, not an OF.

PostPosted: Sun Feb 12, 2006 11:28 pm
by Ender
3. Ender, you're right....and you're wrong, sorry. You're right in the global picture when you say 50 SB is the net result, but you have to think of it this way:

Say you have both an OF and a C who are both projected to steal 50 bases this year (remember if either one goes down mid season you can only replace them with someone of the same position eligibility). And if we pretend, for the sake of this example, that the average catcher only steals 4 bases a year and the average OF steals 12 bases, the difference between your catcher's 50 sb prediction and their replacement is 46 swipes, but the difference between your OF and their potential replacement is only 38, thus making the catcher's 50 more valuable b/c of the scarcity of SB from the catcher spot.

Or if you want to look at a different way, again using the pretend averages of catchers steal 4 bags a year and OF 12.

Team A:
C- 50 sb
OF- 12 sb

Team B:
C- 4 sb
OF - 50 sb

This would imply that the catcher's 50 sb on team A are more valuable b/c they came from a C, not an OF


I understand the theory, I just think its wrong. The stolen bases aren't in any way more valuable coming from a C. If anything they are less valuable because if that C gets hurt you cannot replace the SB and your teams balance is off unless you modify your roster elsewhere.

Thats not to say I don't believe in positional scarcity and using a baseline replacement player, . Assuming you set SB and HR equal a 15 HR, 10 SB catcher is not worth more to me than a 25 HR, 0 SB catcher. I could care less how many SB the average Catcher has, its meaningless.

Looking at the math involved it turns out it doesn't really matter, this system doesn't really place any more value on a SB for a C than for a 1B. If you simply add up the dollar value of the replacement player and subtract from the dollar value of the player you end up with the same results as if you do it category by category.

Just curious

PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2006 9:53 am
by Slugger2006
Re-reading what I wrote, I didn't really mean for it to sound like I was taking credit for inventing much of the process... but I do think I may have explained it in an easier to understand way than any other I've found previously. Hope it was helpful!


Hey man, if you didn''t invent this, would you mind saying who did? I've been looking for stuff like this for like forever.

Re: Calculating $$$ Values

PostPosted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 7:10 pm
by ninremix
any way to get some 2008 figures?

Re: Calculating $$$ Values

PostPosted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 7:39 pm
by CheeseBeger
Good to see this thread again (it should still be stickied)

I used his advice on how to value players this year and so far so good. I think it has given me an advantage in leagues with different than the normal 12 team set up. ;-D

Re: Calculating $$$ Values

PostPosted: Sun Feb 17, 2008 12:26 pm
by mkuz
ninremix wrote:any way to get some 2008 figures?


this would rock! as i am to stupid or maybe to lazy to do this myself.

or

maybe someone could do like the top 10 $$$ amount guys at each position. just to get me started.

thanks

Re: Calculating $$$ Values

PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 11:09 pm
by rb11
ok just starting to do this. Do you have 1 list for 2b, 1 for ss and 1 for MI. I took the top players that didnt make the cut in my ss and 2b and put them in the MI list. Those players i didnt count as replacement players for ss and 2b since their drafted for MI. Is that right?

Re: Calculating $$$ Values

PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 11:35 pm
by Matthias
rb11 wrote:ok just starting to do this. Do you have 1 list for 2b, 1 for ss and 1 for MI. I took the top players that didnt make the cut in my ss and 2b and put them in the MI list. Those players i didnt count as replacement players for ss and 2b since their drafted for MI. Is that right?

Correct.

Re: Calculating $$$ Values

PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2008 6:47 pm
by rb11
Matthias wrote:
rb11 wrote:ok just starting to do this. Do you have 1 list for 2b, 1 for ss and 1 for MI. I took the top players that didnt make the cut in my ss and 2b and put them in the MI list. Those players i didnt count as replacement players for ss and 2b since their drafted for MI. Is that right?

Correct.


wouldnt that overvalue MI since their category total would be much smaller since its the players that weren't good enough to be started as SS or 2B. They would be against basically the same replacement player as a SS but their category value would be lower causing them to be overvalued. Wouldnt it?

Re: Calculating $$$ Values

PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2008 7:02 pm
by rb11
also if they have multiple positions do you count them in each list. For example does Figgins go in 3 lists?