GotowarMissAgnes wrote:One quick clarification, Elijah. It's not clear to me how you calculated the values for a replacement player. It sounds as if you took ALL players at the position below the level you set as the player sample selected in the league. That is, it sounds as if you calculate replacement by finding the average of all the players excluded from the league. That's likely to give you an underestimate of the replacement player's value. You want to use the "marginal" value rather than the average value. In other words, what you really want is the value of the player at thetop of the replacement list. Since any one player might not be representative, you probably do want to average, but I would average of the top 5 or 10 players left out of the league, rather than the entire excluded player group.
If I'm wrong in understanding your explanation, mea culpa.
1. I found this thread a few weeks back and I think its an excellent post for anyone new to auction league pricing!
2. GTW, I believe Elijah explains this in an early post (same thread) when he says:
[quote ="Elijah"]Also for Wyatt's question on calculating the replacements value:
What I found is that the last few guys to make the cut at any given position are more or less interchangeable, so I would use an average of the last 4 guys who made the cut to the player universe, and then the next best 4 guys who didn't. That should give you a good picture of what the average replacement at a given position would look like. [/quote]
3. Ender, you're right....and you're wrong, sorry. You're right in the global picture when you say 50 SB is the net result, but you have to think of it this way:
Say you have both an OF and a C who are both projected to steal 50 bases this year (remember if either one goes down mid season you can only replace them with someone of the same position eligibility). And if we pretend, for the sake of this example, that the average catcher only steals 4 bases a year and the average OF steals 12 bases, the difference between your catcher's 50 sb prediction and their replacement is 46 swipes, but the difference between your OF and their potential replacement is only 38, thus making the catcher's 50 more valuable b/c of the scarcity of SB from the catcher spot.
Or if you want to look at a different way, again using the pretend averages of catchers steal 4 bags a year and OF 12.
C- 50 sb
OF- 12 sb
C- 4 sb
OF - 50 sb
This would imply that the catcher's 50 sb on team A are more valuable b/c they came from a C, not an OF.