HOOTIE wrote:The minute Arod left Texas, his value dropped a bit, because of losing ss, and park effects. People equate wearing pinstripes as increasing a player's value, but that's not always true.
Who do i like more? Hard to say, it's close. Let's look at real hitting., not fantasy.
From 00-03, Vlad and Arod were near twins in OPS, and RC/27. But in 04, park effects took over. From 01-03 in Texas, Arod had a .997 home OPS. Last year in NY, he had a .857 home OPS. Arod isn't getting worse as his road splits show, just that the difference between hitting in Texas versus NY, is huge for a RHB. Here's the road splits. From 01-03 a .937 OPS, to last years .920 road OPS.
Basically a push. So Vlad is now the better hitter by virtue of parks.
Now, who will steal more? Imo, both will be around 15-20. So Vlad likely will earn more in fantasy value (Vlad $37- Arod $32 last year). But Arod earns the position factor, even if 3b is loaded. Who to take. I could go either way. Vlad is a hair better as a player, but i like a strong infield. I will say a toss up.
Hootie, who am I too question you, but this makes little sense. If Guerrero was worth $37 last season and A-Rod was worth $32 and A-Rod's SB's drop to the 15-20 range, this would mean A-Rod's value would drop to about $29 if all things stay about the same. Are you saying a $29 A-Rod is just as valuable as a $37 Guerrero even thought the average value of a starting mixed league OF is only about a buck higher than at 3b?
To me, the question should no longer be whether A-Rod should go second in mixed drafts but whether he should go in the first round at all. With those SB's he was a fringe first round value last season and if they drop he becomes a fringe second rounder for this season unless he does significantly better with his stick, which I have my doubts. And to go the second pick he would need to not only keep his SB's up but hit 50 HR's and hit .300 as well. That, I have serious doubts about.