Scott Boras Client wrote:His stolen bases will likely go down because they'll likely revert back toward his average over the last five years, which is 17. There are few precedents for players running more as they get older, and fewer still for sluggers running wild with Sheffied, Matsui, Posada hitting behind them. Last year was a fluke, stolen bases wise, for The Cooler.
Blankman: there's less incentive to risk an out on the basepaths when the next hitter is slugging .600. or .500, for that matter.
i don't follow the logic of this. You're essentially saying that you should throw out last year (or look at as a fluke) when trying to determine how many stolen bases A-Rod will steal as a Yankee this year.
You point at the big bats hitting behind him as evidence, despite the fact this was the same situation last year. That makes no sense.
i agree that it goes against tradition to send a runner with a big bat at the plate, but that's what happened last year.
i'm trying to understand why everyone wants to say A-Rod will revert to his stolen base numbers in his last couple of seasons with the Rangers. There is more to support the argument that he will be closer to 2004. Just my opinion.