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PostPosted: Wed Dec 29, 2004 7:27 pm
by wrveres
looks like I will be targeting Trevor this season. He proved me wrong last season with his injury and now that he is back, everybody is downgrading him. I love it.

PostPosted: Wed Dec 29, 2004 9:10 pm
by kimchi_chigae
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
LBJackal wrote:
trevisc wrote:No Stud pitchers (unless you count zito as a stud) and hardly any hitting = low save opps.


This is hardly true. First of all, they have enough pitchers to keep the games close. You don't need stars to get save opps. They're random, and bad teams are consistently at or near the top of the league in save opps.

Dotel should be one of the best closers out there this year.... probably going to be on most if not all of my teams.


I agree Jackal - however you might want to keep the praise for Dotel down a bit - his price tag is climbing. I can see him go in the 4th-5th rd in some leagues. Are you really willing to jump that high for him?


wow. 4th-5th round is too early for Dotel IMO. in one of my drafts this offseason he went 10th round. but i agree with you guys, even though the A's seem to have got weaker losing mulder and hudson, they still have some good arms in that team which will prolly keep a lot of games close improving the chances of dotel to get saves.

i think a lot of people were disappointed with him last year when he didn't pitch that well in the beginning of the season and that made him slip under the radar. some onwers prolly even dropped him at some point during the season. he got 36 SVs, but he also had 9 BS :-b

i think you can consider him a sleeper for next year.

PostPosted: Thu Dec 30, 2004 2:05 am
by LBJackal
JDD wrote:Here are the Saves Leaders, with games, games started, wins and losses out front, Saves are listed last. I dropped players who likely won't be the designated closer in April. This list will change time and again before we are ready to draft, that is for sure....

Mariano Rivera NYY 74 0 4 2 53
Francisco Cordero TEX 67 0 3 4 49
Armando Benitez SFO 64 0 2 2 47
Jason Isringhausen STL 74 0 4 2 47
Eric Gagne LOS 70 0 7 3 45
Joe Nathan MIN 73 0 1 2 44
Jose Mesa PIT 70 0 5 2 43
Danny Graves CIN 68 0 1 6 41
Trevor Hoffman SDG 55 0 3 3 41
Dan Kolb ATL 64 0 0 4 39
Octavio Dotel OAK 77 0 6 6 36
Shawn Chacon COL 66 0 1 9 35
Troy Percival DET 52 0 2 3 33
Keith Foulke BOS 72 0 5 3 32
Danys Baez TAM 62 0 4 4 30
Braden Looper NYM 71 0 2 5 29
Brad Lidge HOU 80 0 6 5 29
LaTroy Hawkins CHN 77 0 5 4 25
Jorge Julio BAL 65 0 2 5 22
Billy Wagner PHI 45 0 4 0 21
Shingo Takatsu CHA 59 0 6 4 19
Eddie Guardado SEA 41 0 2 2 18
Jason Frasor TOR 63 0 4 6 17
Dustin Hermanson CHA 47 18 6 9 17
Greg Aquino ARI 34 0 0 2 16
Chad Cordero WAS 69 0 7 3 14
Bob Wickman CLE 30 0 0 2 13
Jeremy Affeldt KAN 38 8 3 4 13
Francisco Rodriguez ANA 69 0 4 1 12
Guillermo Mota FLA 78 0 9 8 4
Antonio Alfonseca FLA 79 0 6 4 0

Teams leaving us wondering:

Chicago White Sox: Hermanson or Takasu?
Chicago Cubs: Hawkins for sure?
Cleveland Indians: Wickman now, Riske/Rhodes later?
Florida Marlins: Alfonseca healthy?, if not, then Mota
Milwaukee Brewers: Who will close, and do we care?
Toronto Blue Jays: Will Frasor be the answer?

That gives us 31 Closers to worry about... Two teams have two candidates, and one has zero, so we have 31 guys to rank.

My list will cost you....


I'm not sure if this is intended to show that good teams produce good closers... but a correlation between wins and saves doesn't mean that better teams create moer save opportunities. A lot of times good closers are on teams with a lot of wins BECAUSE they have a good closer. Closers are usually the last priority when building a team. I don't have evidence for that, just what I see as common sense. That is another reason why bad teams don't usually have great closers. Of course there are cases where teams will lose so often that theyproduce very few save opps, hindering a closer's value. But that seems to be a major problem only for teams like Montreal, KC, 'Zona, etc.

But it's interesting to note that good teams like Boston, Chicago WS, and LA are in the bottom third of the league for save opps while horrible teams like Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Colorado are near the top of the league. It's true that save opps are deceiving as to how many chances a closer wil get, but it should show that you don't have to be good to give your closer a lot of saves. I'd like to see a stat showing 9th inning save opps only, and a max of only one per game. As it is, those 3 RP's you throw in the game during the 8th inning all count as save opps. That skews the stats... basically what I'm saying is that there are much better ways of predicting a closer's amount of saves than his team's W/L record or total save opps from the previous year. Does losing Mulder and Hudson hurt them a lot for save opps? Well some games that those 2 would have kept them in, they'll lose, but then again some games where those two kept the opponent down by more than 3 runs would now be save opps since worse pitchers are pitching. It also depends on your setup men, your offense, whether or not you have a lefty specialist that might finish out games if lefties are up at the end, etc. However, teams like Oakland/Boston and other moneyball type teams (moneyball in the sense of producing runs, not meaning winnning with a $50M budget before anybody has a hssy fit) seem conducive to less save opps since they play for the big hit, and it's all or nothing. With small ball teams, closers get a lot more chances. It's no surprise, given the small ball mentality, that 9 of the top 11 teams in save opps are in the NL. It's also no surprise that 9 of the last 14 WS were won by AL teams since small ball doesn't work as well as big ball; get on base, don't make outs, and wait for the big hit :-D

OK my essay is over.

PostPosted: Thu Dec 30, 2004 2:16 am
by Bukoski77
I'm with Jackal on the Dotel issue.

The A's middle relief was horrible last year and cost them quite a few save chances as well. With the additions of Juan Cruz and Kiko Calero(Calero, whom Jackal and I both pimped last year) in middle relief, the A's wont surrender near as many leads as they did last year.

I'd still rather have Hudson and Mulder back over the players we aquired for them, and not that I have a list of cosers ranked, but Dotel is still top 10 closer stuff.

PostPosted: Thu Dec 30, 2004 3:26 am
by NZF
I've got Dotel just outside the Top 10 at 12.

The main reason I have him as high as 12 is he gives you very good K totals. Third out of all closers behind K-Rod and Lidge. As I said last season, elite set up man he may have been, but elite closer he is not. His save conversion rate is no way good enough for that.

The loss of Mulder and Hudson is I believe only a small factor in determining his value this season as opposed to last year. Weigh up the loss of the quality of those two starters, against the fact that between them they threw 8 CG in 2004 anyway. That, plus a stronger bullpen, should see Dotel get similar save totals in 2005 and his fair share of blown saves as well.

PostPosted: Thu Dec 30, 2004 5:03 am
by Madison
Last year I had Francisco Cordero pegged (and stolen fairly late) in my drafts. Right now, I don't have a clear cut sleeper just yet. Going to make for some interesting studying later.

PostPosted: Thu Dec 30, 2004 5:31 am
by TheYanks04
The Elite (3):
Mo
Gagne
Lidge - may rank #1 in 5x5 if he gets 45+ Saves

The near Elite (5):
Frod
F. Cordero
Nathan
Wagner
Foulke

The very Good (4):
Benitez
Izzy
Hoffman
Kolb

The decent mid-tier (9):
Dotel
Mota
Ryan
Guardado (health)
Looper
Takatsu
Graves
Percival (health)
Baez

21 closers of 30 teams that are no worse than decent.

The very risky or quite below avg (2):
Mesa (Do you feel lucky? The Good Mesa or the Bad Mesa?)
Wickman


Leaving, THE TRASH (7):
Affeldt KC
C. Cordero Wash
Aquino Ari
Dempster CHC
Adams Milw
Speier Tor
Tsao Col


This may be the worst year in awhile for the number of Trash closers that are around. Right now, I would not want any of the last 4 on my squad at all...and Affeldt, C. Cordero and Aquino are at best marginal plays as they will be lucky to post 20 saves each no matter how well they pitch.

PostPosted: Thu Dec 30, 2004 9:45 am
by thomasps3
I swear. You guys have no love for Joe Nathan, at least it seems to me. I would have him ranked Top 3-4 IMO with his stellar Ks, low whip/era, and a team that always seems to provide enough save situations for him to post 40+ saves. Just my humble opinion, but it seems like Lidge has been blown up with the hype and has nowhere to go but down. Nathan is now a proven commodity, and Lidge, if the Astros lose Beltran and Clemens, could be in for a rude awakening this year, taking away possible save situations for the Lidgemeister....just had to shine a light on this, as it seems this has gone on for tooooo long....and just so you know, I do not have Nathan on my fantasy keeper team, but I wish I did.

PostPosted: Thu Dec 30, 2004 9:49 am
by LBJackal
thomasps3 wrote:I swear. You guys have no love for Joe Nathan, at least it seems to me. I would have him ranked Top 3-4 IMO with his stellar Ks, low whip/era, and a team that always seems to provide enough save situations for him to post 40+ saves. Just my humble opinion, but it seems like Lidge has been blown up with the hype and has nowhere to go but down. Nathan is now a proven commodity, and Lidge, if the Astros lose Beltran and Clemens, could be in for a rude awakening this year, taking away possible save situations for the Lidgemeister....just had to shine a light on this, as it seems this has gone on for tooooo long....and just so you know, I do not have Nathan on my fantasy keeper team, but I wish I did.


;-D

Except Nathan isn't really a proven commodity... but Lidge is extremely over-valued IMO. Maybe if he had somebody better than Mike Gallo or soemthing setting him up maybe I'd think higher of him, and don't get me wrong I think he'll be great, but people are expecting him to be in the top 2 of closers and he has nowhere to go but down from there.

PostPosted: Thu Dec 30, 2004 11:41 am
by Rkiivs
thomasps3 wrote:I swear. You guys have no love for Joe Nathan, at least it seems to me...


Nathan's top 5 for me. He also has aruguably one of the best setup relievers in Rincon. Flash Gordon is probably the only setup guy I'd rate over Rincon. That's why I put him up at number 5 on my rankings.