## Best fantasy baseball prognosticator in 2004?

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

LBJackal wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Predicting everyone would be a pain, but I'd go further than just predicting a handful of tough to predict players. I'd do something like predicting the top 100 or 200 players and maybe include another 25 or 50, youngsters, maybe.

There are several different tests of prediction you could use. A common one is the Mean Squared Predictive Error, which is a fancy term for "Take how far off you were, square it, add it up, and divide by the number of observations"

Like Tavish said it would be good to have some sort of weighted system where players who were tough to predict are given more weight. Or maybe not more weight, but if you get them right you get more than a normal "right" prediction. And if you get a simple one wrong, you get less points than a normal "wrong" prediction. Just an idea, and really any system would be fine by me.

Unless you could develop an objective system ahead of time that fairly weighted players based on difficulty, I'd pass on that. The idea has merit, but creating the system, getting everyone to agree that it's fair, and then applying it to all the players is pretty messy.
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero

Posts: 5469
(Past Year: -47)
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

BKeller wrote:A couple questions: how do you measure accuracy? I predicted Tejada would have 16 SBs and 110 RBIs; he wound up with 4 SBs and 150-something RBIs. Was my projection accurate because I predicted that he would be valuable or inaccurate b/c I was so off in the individual categories? (Podsednik is another example; was someone who predicted .320 and 25 SBs for him accurate?) I'm wondering if you just convert everything to \$\$\$ values and give credit for the overall assessment or if you measure each category. At the end of the day, I care more about being referred to good values than that you be right in 4 categories but overestimate home runs or SBs by 300%.

Also, how do you account for injuries? Most projections seem to handicap for . . . well, temporary handicaps. (I.e., injuries.) If I predicted Richie Sexson would have a lousy year, would my projections get more points/credit than someone who predicted a repeat of 2003?

Just thinking out loud here . . . and looking forward to the results!

If you have a dollar value system, that makes it easier, because you really just have to measure that. But, I don't play \$ games, so I'd pass.

There are a bunch of different ways to do the error measurement. I'll see if I can write a simple explanation of a few.

To me, injuries are part of the game. If you predict and a guy gets injured, you make a big mistake.
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero

Posts: 5469
(Past Year: -47)
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:FWIW, here's a link to a forecasting contest for 2003. It was pretty limited, but interesting anyway.

http://www.tangotiger.net/forecastFinal2.html

that is interesting-they said the baseline was 3 year average adjusted for age. how do they adjust?
reiser
Minor League Mentor

Posts: 640
(Past Year: -1)
Joined: 17 Feb 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Previous