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Mookie4ever wrote:Wow Agnes, comparing Beltre to Brady Anderson? Not a good comparison at all.
Beltre has always been considered a superstar-in-waiting. The guy started out in the majors when he was 19. He has had medical problems and a lot of pressure put on him - but last year when he was fully healthy he produced. There is no reason to expect his to regress. How many players out there are 5 year MLB vets at the age of 25 coming off of an MVP-type year? He is first round material for sure.
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:So, as long as we are throwing out injuries and other nonstatistic intangibles, then I would agree that last yr was a fluke for Beltre. However, if we look at why last yr was much better than his previous seasons one could conclude that maybe it was a natural development of a young player that went to the majors before he was ready, but learned to adapt before running into injury and personal issues in 2003. Therefore by 2004 he not only overcame his injuries, but the combination of that and his maturation made him an elite hitter. So, from a fundamental standpoint, his 2004 numbers were not an abhoration, but rather natural meeting of experience and health - as long as he remains healthy, his numbers should remain consistant to 2004 averages. However - from a technical standpoint, last yr was a fluke and he will regress based solely on the previous years averages.
This is a prime example of the difference between the 2 major types of fantasy perspectives - fundamental and technical.
The wise fantasy player will not rely too heavily on either, but rather use them in conjunction by using technical data to create a projection range, but fundamental data to raise or lower those projections.
How will Beltre perform? My guess is slightly worse than 2004 - not enough to drop him significantly in rankings however, and certainly much closer to 2004 averages than pre 2004 averages. Hope that helps.
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:And why would we assume that a player with an injury history who had an injury free season would not revert to form?
GotowasMissAgnes wrote:You blame his past numbers in part on injuries. Fine. Why should I then assume that he will be in perfect health this year?
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:In other words, how often does a young player with a few years under his belt post a big BA/SLG spike and then regress to about halfway between that spike and his past level?
You just don't have time enough for me to document how frequently that happens.
Beltre is a good player. Even with that regression, he's among the top players.
But, it's very likely he'll be 100 or so points of OPS below last year (unless he moves to a good hitter's park).
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