Erboes wrote:You have to excuse the scratching of my head here, but what makes you think Ortiz, Cabrera, and Teixeira are safer bets? Ortiz, one good season and one good one platoon season. Cabrera, one good season while previously he was an OK rookie. Teixeira, one good season while previously he was an average rookie. In short, you are willing to bet that these three players who have really one good season each is a safer bet than Beltre, who has one good season. Plus, their one good seasons do not come close to Beltre's really, really, really, good season. In short, you are being arbitrary in your judgements. Your reasoning is simple and more than likely wrong. You have it in your mind that Beltre is a bust so you will overlook the same things you damn him with with other players such as Teixeira, Ortiz, and Cabrera. I know what you are going to say, and that is Beltre failed previously, but so what? So did countless other 24 year olds. You do what you want, but your logic is really screwy.
I just remembered something with Beltre. Wasn't it discovered that he was actually two years younger than his listed age a couple of seasons ago? In other words, wasn't he supposed to be 21 his rookie season instead of 19 that he really was? Then, doesn't this mean he was like playing rookie ball at 15 or something? Then his last season in double or triple A he was really only 18? Refresh my memory, friends.
Erboes makes a good point. Why do people keep saying that Beltre came out of nowhere? Please look at his complete record.
Please look at what he did at age 20 and 21.
Age 20: .275/.352/.428 (1999)
Age 21: .290/.360/.475 (2000)
Thaose are pretty impresisive numbers for a young third baseman. Given normal growth as a hitter, a 21-year old that hits 20 HRs can certainly hit 48 HRs later in his career. Then he had his botched surgery. From 2001-03 he wasn't that good. Now, I don't know if one can say this was completely caused by his surgery. However I think the key for Beltre is his BB/K ratio. If you look at his good years ('99, '00. and '04) he walked a lot more thean he did in his bad years. Will he hit 48 HRs every year? Of course not. Even Mike Schmidt didn't hit 48 HRs every year. Iwill definitely keep an eye on him in spring training.