You have to excuse the scratching of my head here, but what makes you think Ortiz, Cabrera, and Teixeira are safer bets? Ortiz, one good season and one good one platoon season. Cabrera, one good season while previously he was an OK rookie. Teixeira, one good season while previously he was an average rookie. In short, you are willing to bet that these three players who have really one good season each is a safer bet than Beltre, who has one good season. Plus, their one good seasons do not come close to Beltre's really, really, really, good season. In short, you are being arbitrary in your judgements. Your reasoning is simple and more than likely wrong. You have it in your mind that Beltre is a bust so you will overlook the same things you damn him with with other players such as Teixeira, Ortiz, and Cabrera. I know what you are going to say, and that is Beltre failed previously, but so what? So did countless other 24 year olds. You do what you want, but your logic is really screwy.
I just remembered something with Beltre. Wasn't it discovered that he was actually two years younger than his listed age a couple of seasons ago? In other words, wasn't he supposed to be 21 his rookie season instead of 19 that he really was? Then, doesn't this mean he was like playing rookie ball at 15 or something? Then his last season in double or triple A he was really only 18? Refresh my memory, friends.