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Postby dleoboyd » Mon Nov 29, 2004 1:12 am

Amazinz wrote: We have six seasons to look at. You're making a projection that is above his career average and, more importantly, above what he has produced over the last three years. Your projection is basically assuming that we'll witness the same inrease in production from 04-05 (which is not a trend IMO because the rate of increase dropped from the previous year) that we did in 03-04. Maybe that will be correct but at this point I don't agree that we'll see the same development next year.

You make a good point here, but I'm actually looking at all 6 seasons....I just consider 2002 to be a hiccup.....if you eliminate that season, there is a pretty consistent upward trend, in terms of his "real numbers" (numbers using a common base). Even his SLG%, OBP, and OPS increase each year, if you discard 2002.

Amazinz wrote:At this point (and it's still too early) nothing has changed in SD to suggest that he won't be batting at the bottom of the order and that the Padres offense will be substantially more productive than it was last year. I'd rather base my projections on a middle ground between everything going right and everything going wrong. :-)

Again, you make a good point....If indeed nothing does change and Hernandez does end up in the 7th spot again, I will adjust my rbi and run projections....which goes back to my original post, basically saying that projecting those numbers at this point in the season is tough to do and doesn't really mean much.

Amazinz wrote:Absolutely. His production increased last year but I am not willing to assume you'll see the same rate of increase next year. Look at his production increase from 02-03. If you had banked on a repeat your projections would have been way off the mark.

As I said previously, I'm not just looking at the increase between 03 and 04, or even the three year trends, considering 02, 03, and 04; I'm looking at his whole career and pretty much discarding 2002. You may say that I can't just discard a whole season, but there have been many players that have had general upward trends with one or two bad years in the middle....Richie Sexson, for example, had career upward trends from his rookie season, until his first 40 HR season in 2001. In 2002 his numbers decreased considerably (his hiccup season), yet he was able to bounce back just fine in 2003 and even continue his upward trend in terms of his K/BB ratio, OPS, OBP, etc....I could list a quite a few other players, whose careers have included a similar phenomenon, but I think Richie's example is sufficient.

Considering Ramon Hernandez' career trends, I think it is perfectly reasonable to project an increase in his overall numbers next season.
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Nov 30, 2004 9:25 am

Tavish wrote:
Amazinz wrote:OK I don't see Hernandez producing like that this year. I'm sure this will change but right now I'm looking at:

BA .270 HR 20 R 60 RBI 75

Thats more like what I'm expecting. I think he might come close to 25 HR, but I'm not quite ready to project a career year across the board for Hernandez.

Here's what I have for him:

.265, 17 HR, 49 R, 62 RBI in 415 AB's.

He might surprise me, but that park is the anti-Coors Field. The worst HR park in the majors. He had 10 HR at home last year and won't get that many next year methinks. I'll give him 10 on the road and 7 at home.

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