Amazinz wrote:OK I don't see Hernandez producing like that this year. I'm sure this will change but right now I'm looking at:
BA .270 HR 20 R 60 RBI 75
So you're basically saying that he is going to do pretty much the same thing he has done over the last two years.....That's fine, but I prefer to look at the trends when making my projections. As I said in my previous post, I won't project with any certainty runs or rbis, because we don't know what the lineup will look like. I believe someone said that it would be hard for Hernandez to put up the runs and rbis totals that I projected, hitting at the bottom of the lineup. I completely agree. You'll notice that I prefaced my projections by saying "if he can stay healthy and everything goes right." Everything going right would include a better spot in the batting order than 7th (which is where I think he was most of last year, correct me if I'm wrong).
The reasons I've projected an increase across the board in Hernandez' numbers is because of the signs. The 23 doubles and 18 HR, in 384 AB is actually an increase in power over any of his previous seasons. He significantly improved his k/bb ratio last season, indicating increased patience at the plate, which I believe will translate into a better BA next season. He has also improved his BA, OBP, SLG%, and OPS in each of the last 3 seasons, I see no reason for that trend to stop next year.
All the signs are pointing up for Hernandez and my projections are following accordingly.
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence then, is not an act, but a habit.