stumpak wrote:Pavano going to an AL East team (if that happens) smells a lot like Vasquez and the Yankees last year--more pressure, big bats and the DH. I think Pavano is going to be overvalued because there will be a lot of people not taking the downside risk into account. He just seems like one of those guys to stay away from and let someone else overpay.
I agree with this Pavano nonsense. He is pretty good, but his free-agent hype will outweigh his fantasy value.
Starting pitching is the most variable thing in fantasy baseball. Prior gets hurt, El Duque lights it up, Zito forgets how to pitch, Whose this Dontrelle Willis guy?, Schmidt has a bum elbow/arm, Schmidt throws a near cy-young season, Brandon Webb, Cliff Lee, Chris Carpentar.
There are so many things that can happen with starting pitching. There are very few locks for starting pitching next season (I'm not even sold on Schilling). Last year, I drafted Prior in the first round and Santana in the seventh. I also ended up with several other pitchers throughout the season (29 different ones, total), and I ended up with a rotation of Santana, Prior, Doug Davis, and El Duque. I could have never predicted that kind of pitching chaos, and I still won the league (with some creative roster jostling).
Back to the original question: I really look at a guys k/9 and whip (Santana has a proven record of this). Wins are so variable, and even ERA is dependent on several variable factors. WHIP is less dependent and k/9 even less.
I wouldn't draft a pitcher in the first round next season. But considering the way I rate pitchers, how could you go wrong with Schmidt, RJ, Schill (healthy 100%), Santana, or Pedro? If you can get one of these guys at a resonable spot in the draft (or at a reasonable price) it would be great. But you can still win pitching with better, cheaper starters, efficient releivers, and extensive line-up/match-up research. I'd go with the bats in at least the first two rounds, and if one of these guys is still there, grab him. Other than that, you'll have to wing it.
Finally, while we are on the topic of starting pitching: Does anyone thing Roy Halladay will bounce back?
98% of Americans have a favorable opinion of puppies and rainbows.
How do you spell "biased?"