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Jacques Jones - Projections???

PostPosted: Fri Nov 12, 2004 12:15 pm
by thomasps3
Hey Guys,
I'm in a deep $260 AL only keeper league with 12 teams, and I've had Jacques on my team for awhile. He currently has a price tag of $26 bucks, and I'm not exaclty sold on him. I've heard he could develop into a 35 HR guy, which would make him really worth it. I guess what I'm asking is, what can I reasonably expect from Jacques this year?

My projections would look like this, in a realistic world:
.282, 26 HRs, 88 RBI, 13 SBs

Do you think this is accurate, or will he surprise to the upside?

PostPosted: Fri Nov 12, 2004 1:30 pm
by Amazinz
I like your projections. They are pretty close to what I came up with. I'm a little lower on the HR totals and I wouldn't put much faith in Jones become a 35 HR hitter.

PostPosted: Fri Nov 12, 2004 1:38 pm
by looptid
Jones was 29 years old last season, and his OBP and especially SLG has gone down each of the last three seasons.

Year: OBP SLG Age
2002: .341 .541 27
2003: .333 .464 28
2004: .315 .427 29

Having watched Jones for several years now (local Twins fan), he's got a horrible eye. He chases anything up in the zone. I doubt at age 30, with declining numbers like that, he'll all of a sudden break out for 30 homeruns. I don't know how much a given player is worth in your league, but the numbers you threw out seem to be more what I would expect, so if that justifies a $26 investment, I guess go for it.

Up until the heartbreaking injury suffered by Jason Kubel in the Arizona Fall League a couple days ago, I was pretty sure Jones wouldn't be with the Twins next season. Now, I'm not so sure, but I'm pretty sure Michael Restovich could replace Jones' production (decent power with a horrible OBP) for league minimum instead of Jacque's $4+ million salary.

Justin Morneau will be the first Twin since 1987 to hit 30 homeruns in a season in 2005, not Jones. He hit 19 in 280 AB last season. I don't know if it will be next season, but I'd bet good money Morneau becomes the first Twin to hit 40 since the Killer.

Heck, I like Jones' career 162 game average for a guess at 2005, which in 5x5 categories would be:

81 R, 21 HR, 78 RBI, 10 SB, .284 AVG

PostPosted: Fri Nov 12, 2004 3:06 pm
by Amazinz
I think you will have to wait a little longer than 2005 for Morneau to hit 30 HRs. That seems like a bit of stretch to me. ;-)

PostPosted: Fri Nov 12, 2004 3:29 pm
by Pedantic
Going into 2004, I thought that his poor '03 campaign was the result of injuries, but now that he's not done well this year, I think it is part of a trend, and I'm not expecting real great numbers from him.

PostPosted: Fri Nov 12, 2004 6:31 pm
by Lofunzo
I am not a big fan of Jones and I think that your projections are very bloated.

PostPosted: Sat Nov 13, 2004 11:57 am
by looptid
Amazinz wrote:I think you will have to wait a little longer than 2005 for Morneau to hit 30 HRs. That seems like a bit of stretch to me. ;-)

30? Easy. Morneau hit 22 homeruns in just 74 games last season. Even though he's had no history of injury, let's say he's given days off and sticks his hand in a fan to see if it's working at one point during the season, and ends up only playing in 120 games. At his 2004 rate, assuming no improvement from his skill set as a 23 year old, he would hit 35 homeruns. Bump that number to 150 games and at that pace he hits 44.

Couple his major league totals last season with the fact he hit 22 homeruns during the first half of the season in AAA in just 288 AB, and I think 30 homeruns are a given.

PostPosted: Sat Nov 13, 2004 1:07 pm
by ajgnydc722
I had a strange dream last night that the Yankees traded Posada for Jones. 8-o

Sorry, I'll stop talking now. :-D

PostPosted: Sat Nov 13, 2004 5:03 pm
by wkelly91
Cashman might do that 8-o

PostPosted: Sat Nov 13, 2004 5:30 pm
by Subversive
I think your projections are a little high on Jones. I have him in a 16 team keeper league for $8 next season and I think I'll probably keep him at that price. At $26 I wouldn't even consider it.