slomo007 wrote: LBJackal wrote: slomo007 wrote:
LBJackal wrote:I agree, Renteria won't hit his 2003 numbers. But Guillen is an extreme one year wonder if there ever was one. His SLG went up a ridiculous amount, especially considering he's in an extreme pitchers park. He's due for a big decline as far as I'm concerned...
Do you have any reason to think this, or are you just guessing because that's what you want
to see happen? If you have seen a lot of Tigers games and can tell us that he can't hit inside and it's only a matter of time until pitchers figure him out, that's great I'd love to hear it. But if that's purely your opinion then it truly doesn't mean much. [b]I don't think someone can be that
good for 140 games or whatever and still be called a fluke.[b]
He wasn't that good for 140 games, he was that good for about 80 games (3 months). Also, lets look at Renteria himself. In 2003 he put up numbers a LOT better than what Guillen did last year. Guillen has been below average his whole career. His SLG has never been above 400 before this year, when it spiked to 542 (I think we know what usually happens after things spike up... they spike down). And you want me to give another reason why he won't keep it up? How about the last 2 months of the season were his worst months. Other than May, June, and July, he did what he was expected to do.
So no, it's not because it's what I WANT to see happen, it's because that's what's likely to happen. If you think he'll be remotely close to this season's totals, draft him ahead of Renteria.
Once again you are only looking at what you want so see, here are his real stats:
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G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
April 22 81 18 25 5 0 2 14 12 17 2 1 .309 .396 .444 .840
May 27 102 20 35 6 4 4 17 13 17 0 2 .343 .417 .598 1.015
June 26 106 19 34 10 3 5 24 7 12 2 1 .321 .360 .613 .973
July 27 104 21 35 8 2 6 23 11 17 3 0 .337 .405 .625 1.030
August 26 100 15 26 7 1 3 19 8 19 4 1 .260 .312 .440 .752
September 8 29 4 11 1 0 0 0 1 5 1 0 .379 .400 .414 .814
As you can see, he really only had one relatively poor month.
I never once said I would rather have Guillen over Renteria all else equal. What I am saying is that Renteria will likely be drafted well before Guillen based solely on his name, therefore I would take the value of Guillen over the value of Renteria.
OK, well what I was saying is he was only better than expected for 3 months. Over the span of a 5 year career, I tend not to believe a 3 month span, which occurred mostly in the first part of the season (May to July), is a trend that will continue. You think it will, and that's cool.
He could provide more value than Renteria (probably not, because players who have a great season and then fall back to mediocrity almost always get drafted too early), and anyway my point was that he won't be better than Renteria.
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