New Zealand Fan wrote: DK wrote:
New Zealand Fan wrote:There is no doubt it has been blown out of proportion because of his poor 2003 numbers in that area.
I would say though that his pitch count from 106-120 in 2004 on that table is a very small sample size. I do believe he does struggle these days to be truly effective against decent offenses when his pitch count gets high.
While you make a good point, I respectfully disagree. His career totals from 106-120:
- Code: Select all
IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
135.2 116 43 42 7 32 162 2.79 1.09 .228
Although this is over a career (and therefore goes over his peak years, which he arguably has passed) it still seems to indicate that he can handle effective teams. Now, powerhouses like the Yankees may be another story. But I'm just going with the evidence.
My point is I believe he struggles now. Prior to 2002 is irrelevant. No way Pedro is the same pitcher as he was in 2002 and before.
Agreed. He was horrible this year, it's by far the worst season he's had. He hasn't had an ERA above 2.40 since 1998. This year it jumped to 3.90
Also, just because his OPS against is the lowest after 90+ pitches, doens't mean he is better after 90+ pitches. Most of the games that he bombs in, he doesn't make it that far presumably. So his bad games affect mostly all pitches below 90, but after 90 he's usually been effective enough to stay in that long.
That's why you have to take stats like that with a grain of salt, and look at the cause of the effect, instead of the effect alone. For instance, players in the top third of the batting order probably have the best league aggregate OBAs. Players in the bottom third of the lineup probably have the wrost league aggregate OBAs. Does that mean batting in the bottom third of the order is conducive to a lower OBA? No, in fact I'd argue that the reverse is true in many cases. The reason for high OBAs at the top of the lineup is because that's where good hitters are put. It seems simple for an example like the one I gave, but it's the same cause and effect idea.
Basically what I'm saying is Pedro DOES get worse as the game wears on and he throws more pitches. Not for the reasons that Fox gave, because they pretty much skew stats to "prove" their beliefs. God, McCarver is horrible.....
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