thetongueofire wrote:"stealing bases wins and fast runners on the bases help teams win and speed is essential. "
the gist is, in the "old times", when no one used to hit home runs, stolen bases, sacs bunts etc. were cooler cos the run expectancy wasn't that high and adding one run meant much more than it does now. the risk was actully sometimes worth it. the "old schoolers" dont realize the change in the game and value steals etc. as if it was still 1905. in today's game giving away outs like that just isnt worth it.
You relaize that you are talking about the game before Ruth right?
this change in the game happened in 1920. Most of the people around at that time, or those oldschoolers
are .... ... dead.
i realize that most of Babe Ruth's homies are dead but where did i say i was talking about that time specifically...
anyways, heres the latest run expectation table (Baseball Prospectus) based on 2003 data...
(refer to end of mi post for table
just play around and see what happens.. for ex, if youre on first with no outs. right now, youre worth 0.9116 expected runs. you decide to take off. if you make it, you would be worth 1.1811 expected runs a gain of .2695 expected runs. so far so good. but in a parallel universe you dont get a good enough lead and youre thrown out. what happens ? theres one out and no one base. the run expectancy drops to .2783, a loss of .6333 expected runs. the loss is about 2.35 times more than the gain. see where i'm going with this ? just for kicks, do it for a couple more different scenarios.
my point is, in the past the run expectancy was obviously not as high, so giving up that one out and losing that baserunner didnt hurt as much. but now since they can score runs more easliy, giving away an out isnt worth it as the out can be used far more productively. taking these kind of unjustified risks and giving up outs and baserunners quite often stifles big innings.
0 1 2
empty 0.5219 0.2783 0.1083
1st 0.9116 0.5348 0.2349
2nd 1.1811 0.7125 0.3407
1st 2nd 1.5384 0.9092 0.4430
3rd 1.3734 1.0303 0.3848
1st 3rd 1.8807 1.2043 0.5223
2nd 3rd 2.0356 1.4105 0.5515
1st 2nd 3rd 2.4366 1.5250 0.7932