Yes but making your top 2 picks in different divisions spreads out your talent. Would you rather have the chance of 2 teams going to the WS or a max of 1 team? If NYY and MIN were the two favourites... that wouldn't mean you should take them both. Because you're guaranteed to lose one of them. Sure you're guaranteed one advancing, but that's all you're guaranteed.
Say NYY and MIN both have a probability of 0.50 to win the AL (the winner of that ALDS is guaranteed to win the ALCS basically). StL has a probability of 0.45 to win the NL, and Houston also has a probability of 0.45 to win the NL. Given 2 picks, going by odds, you'd take NYY and MIN. You're guaranteed to win the AL and enter the WS. Taking StL and HOU you have a 90% chance of going to the WS, but you also probably have 2 NLDS to get points from, instead of one in the AL. If the points were distributed such that all series were worth the same, wouldn't you take the 90% chance of having the bundle StL/HOU then the 100% chance of having the bundle NYY/MIN? And of course I'm assuming that all teams are picked, and it isn't one guy picks NYY, the other guy automatically gets MIN.
But still, if it was that way and NYY had a probability of 0.40 of winning the WS, BOS had a probability of 0.35 of winning the WS, and StL had a probability of 0.25 of winning the WS, would you take NYY/BOS or NYY/StL? You know it's gonna be one of those 3 teams, but if you take NYY/BOS you're guaranteed only one team in the WS. If you take NYY/StL you're guaranteed 1 team with a .53 (.40 / .75) chance of having 2 teams. Maybe I'm doing something wrong (I havn't taken Finite in 2 years
) But to me, I can see a situation where it isn't the best decision to take the two favourite teams if they're in the same league. But like I said.... I could be doing something wrong. Maybe I should be calculating who has the best odds of GETTING to the WS
In that case it's NYY with 0.40 and StL with 1.00. But you were referring to their being no mathematical advantage when looking at odds of who will be the WS winner
. In which case I think I'm right...... definately maybe.