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LBJackal wrote:Beltran will be #1 in the fantasy baseball next year if he signs with the Yankees. And probably no matter where he is. I don't know how many times I've said this, but wait and see. There isn't a single player I wouldn't trade for Bletran straight up.
It isn't that people who study statistics don't like the stolen base. It's just that we generally feel that it needs to be used more judiciously. Run probabalities show a 75% minimum success rate for stolen bases to be helping a ball club. So players like Berkman's 7-14, or Luis Castillo last year, are ultimately hurting the club by getting caught stealing so much. A player like Beltran is exactly the base stealer sabermetricians like. He's the best percentage base stealer in baseball history right now (based on limited attempts though).
Mostly, what these numbers say is, "be careful when you try to steal, the cost is higher than you might think." Its really just a plea to players and managers to use more judgement about stealing bases for both critical situations and high success rate situations.
George_Foreman wrote:i basically agree with what Magney said, but at the same time, it's tough to quantify how distracted a pitcher by certian players with higher propensities to run.
for instance, and interesting study would be to check, say, the rays's #2 hitter's BA when crawford is on first vs. when he is not on first. at least some of that difference could be attributable to his abilty to steal 2nd, and thus should be factored in to the bennefits of his steals. so, IMO, you can probably get away with a success rate slightly blow 75 and still have a net gain provided the speedster has enough of a reputation to throw pitchers off their rhythme.
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