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playoff strategy: HALP!

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playoff strategy: HALP!

Postby George_Foreman » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:46 pm

it's the second week of a two week matchup in my h2h playoffs, and my prospects are looking bleak. I could use some help with my strategy from here on out.

So here's the problem: I've got a pretty solid lock on all of the hitting cats with the exception of HRs (somehow, my opponent got 16 last week... whatever.) It's traditional 5x5 scoring, so that leaves the pitching categories.

Now, I'm by no means doing poorly. ERA is about 3.20, whip 1.07, and i've got 7 wins and 66Ks. The problem is that my opponent is stacked!

Here are the complete standings:
Mod Sqad vs. Foremen

(4-5)

R 41-50
HR 17-10
RBI 47-57
SB 5-1
BA
H/AB 72/254-88/247

W 7-7
SV 1-5
K 71-66
ERA 2.58-3.21
ER/IP 22/76.2-29/81.1
WHIP 1.12-1.07
H+BB/IP 86/76.2-87/81.1

(My team is the Foremen)

So as you can see, I'm still winning ATM, but I fear I will be down 6-4 by the end of the night; the Mod Squad has Johan, Rocket, and R. Ortiz going tonight, which will get him at least one (and possibly 3) wins, a ton of Ks, and if Johan does his usual thing, a low enough WHIP to overtake me.

Here are our respective pitching staffs:

Foremen
C. Schilling (Bos - SP)
C. Pavano (Fla - SP)
Fr. Rodríguez (Ana - RP)
K. Wood (ChC - SP)
W. Williams (StL - SP)
C. Carpenter (StL - SP)
J. Beckett (Fla - SP)
Od. Pérez (LA - SP)
A. Burnett (Fla - SP)

Mod Squad
J. Santana (Min - SP,RP)
R. Clemens (Hou - SP)
B. Sheets (Mil - SP)
J. Peavy (SD - SP)
B. Wagner (Phi - RP)
Ru. Ortiz (Atl - SP)
G. Mota (Fla - RP)
J. Mesa (Pit - RP)
D. Báez (TB - RP)
M. Prior (ChC - SP)
O. Hernández (NYY - SP)

(Note: this is an 8-team league, which is why there are so many good names on both of these teams. Well, that and I would count these as the two best in the league probably...)

Now, the one thing I've got going for me is my waiver wire moves. Our league is move-limited, and I've still got 9 while my opponent only has 1. So while I don't want to use all of my moves this week, I will use as many as I need to get in to the finals next week.

So, do you guys think I have a prayer? I feel that I need to win at least two pitching categories to move on. Right now, I'm closest in WHIP (well, I'm actually leading it...) and Wins. Mod Squad has maybe 1 more start than me this week (I'm not sure how many pitchers will have two more starts for each team...), and his pitchers have better season WHIPs than mine. I figure if I start spot-starting like crazy now, I'll lose my lead in WHIP, but I'll win Wins. The problem is, I'm not sure if I can catch him in Ks. He just has soooo many fireballers on that team. I'm down by 5 Ks now, and I figure after tonight, it'll be closer to 25. There are five days left in this week, an I have no qualms about dropping Wright and maybe even Burnitz to get spot starters in.

Do you think I'll be able to catch him in Ks if I spot start? Conversely, do you think I'll be able to hold on to WHIP and win Ws at the same time?

Any advice would be appreciated. Many thanks!
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Postby Lofunzo » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:51 pm

I got a headache from reading so much here but I have 2 main things to say:

1. You are only down by 5 K's. That is easy to catch, even with who he has pitching tonight.
2. Use your WW moves. Why save them?? You can't use them next round if you don't move on in this 1. :-?

I would rather see your hitters before saying who to drop or start.
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Postby George_Foreman » Tue Sep 14, 2004 3:00 pm

Thanks for taking the time. I probably could have explained it better. So you would advise punting the ratios and trying to mass him out? Yeah... I've been thinking that's probably the best way to go about it.

Here's my hitters, as requested:
Á. Rodríguez (NYY - 3B,SS)
S. Rolen (StL - 3B)
T. Helton (Col - 1B)
J. Drew (Atl - CF,RF)
J. Burnitz (Col - LF,CF,RF)
C. Crawford (TB - LF,CF)
H. Matsui (NYY - LF,CF)
R. Furcal (Atl - SS)
B. Boone (Sea - 2B)
J. Posada (NYY - C)
V. Martínez (Cle - C)
D. Wright (NYM - 3B)

I would consider droping one of the catchers, but there are two playoff teams out there who need catchers as well... Not exactly sure if I want to have Posada kill me in the finals. But as you say, he can't kill me in the finals if I don't get there...

And here's the Mod Sqad lineup:
C. Beltrán (Hou - CF)
A. Béltre (LA - 3B)
M. Tejada (Bal - SS)
L. Berkman (Hou - LF,RF)
S. Finley (LA - CF)
C. Delgado (Tor - 1B)
M. Lawton (Cle - LF,DH)
P. Lo Duca (Fla - C,1B)
P. Polanco (Phi - 2B,3B)
M. Piazza (NYM - C,1B)
J. ReyesDL (NYM - 2B,SS)

Thanks again for the advice.
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Postby raiders_umpire » Tue Sep 14, 2004 3:04 pm

you are not in bad standing....use your ww moves and u should be ok.....get them k's and wins up as your offense is holding its own....there should be a couple of good pickups on your waiver wire considering this is a 8 team league....pick u some good matchups and good luck to you.......
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Postby Lofunzo » Tue Sep 14, 2004 3:25 pm

I agree about the spot starting. I would also drop Wright. You have another good 3B. :-) Also, don't be afraid to do a search in Yahoo for players that are really hot over the past week/month and ride them. Guys like Berroa can really help you now. ;-D
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Postby George_Foreman » Tue Sep 14, 2004 3:40 pm

I agree completely. I added Munroe the day of his double header because he was hot and had a double header. 2 HR and 6 RBI later, I was very pleased. Actually, the only reason I have Wright is because I picked him up for yesterday's double dip, and I wasn't completely disappointed with that, either.

I'd consider Berroa, but where to play him?? I'm not benching Arod, and Furcal has been just as hot over the past month. *sigh* Oh well. It's the right problem to have, I suppose. :-b
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Postby Apex » Tue Sep 14, 2004 4:07 pm

I don't have a direct answer to your question, but one thing to keep in the back of your mind is that I'm expecting pitchers that pitch tonight to possibly pitch on Sunday as well. For instance, Minnesota doesn't have a day off before Sunday, so that would be the next natural start for Santana. If it's the same for Houston, etc., you might be behind the eight-ball come Sunday.

I'd suggest checking your position later in the week, assume a level of performance for his starters and see what you need from there before committing to spot starting this week.

You're right, you can't take the moves into next week if you're elimintaed, but at the same time, you don't want to burn them for nothing either.

Good luck!
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Postby George_Foreman » Tue Sep 14, 2004 4:24 pm

Yeah, that's the other thing. Santana, Clemens, and Ortiz are probably all going again on Sunday. Basically, both of us will have all full roster go one more time and he will get those three twice.

So I figure I've got about 20 Ks to make up, and perhaps as many as 3 wins.
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Postby mikcou » Tue Sep 14, 2004 8:28 pm

raiders_umpire wrote:you are not in bad standing....use your ww moves and u should be ok.....get them k's and wins up as your offense is holding its own....there should be a couple of good pickups on your waiver wire considering this is a 8 team league....pick u some good matchups and good luck to you.......


thats what I was just about to say
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