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what exactly is moneyball?

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Postby Registered_Guest » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:36 am

When Chicago becomes a small market team, I'll read it.

Hopefully it won't be before we bring home another World Series! :-°
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Postby tlef316 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:50 am

Amazinz wrote:
tlef316 wrote:obviously, as a yankee fan, i cant really relate to the situation of a small market team, but it seems like the whole idea is a bit overrated.

I'm not sure how you consider it underrated. If you compare what the A's have done with their payroll in comparison to what the Yankees have done with their payroll, there is no comparison.



the twins, marlins and angels have all done more in recent years. why arent they writing books?

ill be impressed with billy beane when he doesnt have 3 of the top 20 pitchers in baseball at the front of his staff. my 11 yr old brother could build a division winner around those guys
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Postby Registered_Guest » Fri Sep 10, 2004 11:26 am

tlef316 wrote:
Amazinz wrote:
tlef316 wrote:obviously, as a yankee fan, i cant really relate to the situation of a small market team, but it seems like the whole idea is a bit overrated.

I'm not sure how you consider it underrated. If you compare what the A's have done with their payroll in comparison to what the Yankees have done with their payroll, there is no comparison.



the twins, marlins and angels have all done more in recent years. why arent they writing books?



Agreed. ;-D And good point.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:09 pm

tlef316 wrote:personally, i think the team needs to get out of the first round of the playoffs before i christen billy beane as the second coming. this is the same guy who claim you dont need a good closer to win.
Arizona didn't have a good closer }:-)

Even if you don't agree with the analysis, Moneyball is a very good read. It is a pretty short read and gives some insight on how at least one MLB team is run.
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Postby tlef316 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:30 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:
tlef316 wrote:personally, i think the team needs to get out of the first round of the playoffs before i christen billy beane as the second coming. this is the same guy who claim you dont need a good closer to win.
Arizona didn't have a good closer }:-)

Even if you don't agree with the analysis, Moneyball is a very good read. It is a pretty short read and gives some insight on how at least one MLB team is run.


o, i actually plan to read it. im sure its very interesting. i just dont really agree with it right now. i think the long term effectiveness of the moneyball strategy will be clear by 2007 when the A's lose at least 1 of the big 3.

i think that when that happens, guys like beane will realize that without godlike pitching it makes more sense to draft guys with great baseball tools and potential, rather than above-average college players with high walk totals.

i could be wrong, and i guess that's why im not an MLB GM
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Postby Amazinz » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:48 pm

Registered_Guest wrote:
tlef316 wrote:
Amazinz wrote:
tlef316 wrote:obviously, as a yankee fan, i cant really relate to the situation of a small market team, but it seems like the whole idea is a bit overrated.

I'm not sure how you consider it underrated. If you compare what the A's have done with their payroll in comparison to what the Yankees have done with their payroll, there is no comparison.

the twins, marlins and angels have all done more in recent years. why arent they writing books?

Agreed. ;-D And good point.


No. I don't think this is a good point. OAK has made it into the playoffs in 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2003.

The Twins are an interesting team to look at because they're emulating Beane's model now. The Twins have made playoff appearances in '02 and '03. It's funny that they've made the playoffs in two consecutive years after they began emulating Beane's gameplan.

The Marlins and Angels each made the playoffs once in that same 4-year span but managed to make the most of it and win the World Series. Is it even fair to call Anaheim a small market team? In this 4-year stretch they won the World Series the year they raised their payroll $40 million dollars.

The following table shows total payroll from 2000-2003 (4 years), total wins, playoff berths and titles. The data speaks for itself.

Code: Select all
NYY $483,903,800   386 WINS   4 BERTHS, 1 W.S.
ANA $239,755,169   333 WINS   1 BERTH, 1 W.S.
OAK $156,197,584   392 WINS   4 BERTHS
MIN $146,162,417   338 WINS   2 BERTHS
FLA $135,514,500   325 WINS   1 BERTH, 1 W.S.


Now here's what is funny. In this 4-year span of Moneyball the Yankees have more than tripled Oakland's payroll. Both teams have made it to the playoffs in those four years. The Yankees only won the W.S. once in the span and Oakland never. You would imagine that with all the money George throws around the margin would be larger.
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Postby Registered_Guest » Fri Sep 10, 2004 1:18 pm

The key is to WIN the World Series....not lose 1st round every year. Correct??

Maybe they should glue some Kleenex to every copy of Moneyball??? I guess while everyone else is winning titles, you have free time to help with books.
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Postby tlef316 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:25 pm

i fail to see how minnesota is emulating oakland's gameplan. just becuase a team is developing a farm system and keeping a small payroll doesnt mean they are copying beane.

the oakland system is based on big time front of the rotation starters, drawing walks and replacing your stars with new prospects once they hit Free agency. it also stresses the drafting of mature college hitters. their core players, except for chavez, all attended college(mulder, hudson, zito, crosby,harden, durazo)

minnesota's sucess has come from a very diferent approach. minnesota has never had big time pitcher(Radke?) until santana developed this year. minnesota relies heavily on great defense and team speed to achieve victory. minnesota is known for drafting, signing and trading for HS players and guys with good "tools" becuase they have higher upside as players(mauer, morneau, Hunter,guzman, santana, cuddyer) this is something that the A's usually shy away from. the twins also realize the importance of having a strong back of the bullpen(despite not being able to afford guardado and hawkins), something beane considers overrated.

they may both be small market teams, but their approaches are not the same.

your point about the Angels increasing payroll is well taken, but i dont believe its fair to call anaheim(pop 328,014 as of the year 2000) a huge market and praise oakland(pop 399,484 as of the year 2000) for its small market success. it isnt fair, IMO
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Postby LCBOY » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:37 pm

tlef316 wrote:although i think moneyball has some good thinking behind it, i dont think the result on the field is all that great. like others have said, any team can be competitive with those 3 pitchers. hell, they even had stud hitters like giambi, chavez, damon, dye and tejada at the same time and still couldnt get out of the first round. obviously, as a yankee fan, i cant really relate to the situation of a small market team, but it seems like the whole idea is a bit overrated.

personally, i think the team needs to get out of the first round of the playoffs before i christen billy beane as the second coming. this is the same guy who claim you dont need a good closer to win.


The A's failures in the postseason in large part are because of their pitching. When they lost to the Twins in 2002 Hudson lost twice. Beane never said a team doesn't need a good closer. His point is that "closers" are much overvalued and overpriced. He got Foulke and Isringhausen for practically nothing then traded them. Lots of relievers can be good closers. Heck, Gagne was a mediocre starts for several years.

Moneyball is not a strategy to be used in games but a philosophy to acquire undervalued players.
Last edited by LCBOY on Fri Sep 10, 2004 3:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby tlef316 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:41 pm

i agree. i certainly cant blame moneyball for losing games. i just think when a team loses in the first round 4 straight times, their may be flaws in how the team is being built. this leads me to conclude that the moneyball system may be flawed

i think the same thing about the yankees. if they dont win, i think it will prove that the way our team is built is wrong(strategically, not morally)
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