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I think a very good study (and one that i would consider doing) would be to test consistency between years for different players. this way, you can see just how useful the previous years are as predictors for future success. naturally, there will be more reliable guys and less reliable over their careers. I'm of the opinion that consistancy should be rated higher than it is. for instance, i'd be willing to take a guy that was guaranteed to put up 2nd-round pick numbers in the first round rather than a guy i thought would put up 1st round numbers. naturally, this player doesn't exist and there is risk inherent in every selection, but if you can minimize risk, you can maximize the return on your team.
hmm. i think some one should give me money to do this.
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