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More Late-Night Stat Pondering.

PostPosted: Sat Jul 17, 2004 5:21 am
by matmat
I was pondering some stats that might have meaning or might not and one that got me curious is the following.

Not sure what to call it, but let's call it bases gained per plate appearance.

in short this would be the total number of bases gained by the hitter and the baserunners as a result of the action of the hitter divided by the number of plate apperances.

here is how it works.

a bases empty single, BB or HBP = 1
a bases empty double = 2
a bases empty triple = 3
a bases empty HR = 4

a single with a runner at first moving up to 2 = 2 (one base for the hitter, one for the baserunner)
a single with a runner at first moving up to 3 =3 (one for hitter two for baserunner)
a single with runner at first scoring from there = 4(one for hitter, two for baserunner)
a single with a runner at second moving up to third = 2 (one base for hitter, one for the runner)
a single with runner at second scoring = 3 (one for hitter, two for baserunner)
a grand slam, would be 10 (4+3+2+1)
a home run with a runner at second would be 6 (4+2)
a sac bunt would be 1 or 2 (or 3 on a squeeze) depending on how many baserunners there are
a sac fly could also be 1 or 2 or 3...
a SB would be 1 for the baserunner.

PostPosted: Sat Jul 17, 2004 5:25 am
by matmat
the one thing that is fairly clear to me is that this stat could not be calculated from the traditionally kept stats... it is a little related to slugging, but takes into account runners on base.

PostPosted: Sat Jul 17, 2004 5:53 am
by Tavish
Tangotiger has something similar to this in his men-on-base(mob) linear weights. Instead of counting total advancement from hits like you are, it measures the impact of each hit with runners on base and converts them into a linear weights-style Runs Created.


The only problem I see with what you are calculating is that it can be very dependant on the ability of the runners on base. Are you trying to determine the hitter's ability, the team's baserunning ability, or something else?

PostPosted: Sat Jul 17, 2004 2:15 pm
by Chopper
Another huge variable that may reduce the significance of such a stat is the relative fielding expertise of the defense for each play. For example, Bay had a ball get by him yesterday that I think a lot of veteran left fielders might have stopped. Not to mention the effect of different parks. A ball hit to left the exact same (velocity and trajectory etc.) against the same defense with RISP will often have different total bases in Fenway than in Dodger Stadium.
Not that the stat wouldn't be meaningful, just that it might be difficult to factor in what may be big variables.
I think the related pitchers' TB stat is sililarly flawed, but at least it has a somewhat consistent defense behind it.

PostPosted: Sat Jul 17, 2004 2:45 pm
by thetongueofire
yep, i agree... a stat like this would be pretty heavily influenced by the runners baserunning speed and skills and the opposing D specially since guess someone just gotta figure out a way to factor in sac flys etc. youre giving the bases gained by the guys on base equal importance.

just imagine the HUGE advantage a guy like Lowell would have over a guy like Liebrathal who hits behind Thome and Burrell. :-°

not only that, but youre also relying heavily on the obp of the hitters hitting in front of the guy. so that stat could be heavily affected by the strength of the linup/ surrounding hitters.

anyways, i think bases gained by the hitter/pa is still a crude but a relatively accurate measure of how "effective" the hitters been which is what i think youre trying to calculate. ;-D

i think these kinda stats are very important and underrated. :-/

PostPosted: Sat Jul 17, 2004 3:54 pm
by thetongueofire
nice link, Tavish. ;-D