LBJackal wrote: Amazinz wrote:
LBJackal wrote:I think there's a good chance he turns into a perennial 30 HR guy. Just look how much he's improved in the past year, you don't think he can turn all those doubles (third in the majors) into HR's in a coupel years/next year?
Mike Lowell went from being a 20 HR guy with a ton of doubles at age 28 to one of the best HR hitters in baseball at age 29/30. I wouldn't say the amount is infantesimal, especially for players in their first full big-league season.
I think he can turn those doubles into HRs. I have never taken into account experience when looking at the numbers but the numbers really are infinitesimal. Late-bloomers are normally exceptions to the rule but if you want to play the numbers I will pass next year.
Next year? How about this year? LOL. I don't think it's infinitesimal, and I think you came up with that off the top of your head. Do you really have any evidence, or just "guessing"? Any stats showing that prospects who hit a ton of doubles in their mid 20's don't
have a spike in power output when they turn the doubles into HR's? I think it's the norm to expect doubles hitters to have big increases in HR's once they mature.
You are trying to call me out on an individual which you cannot do. I know you like to talk before you think, Jackal, but if you read my posts more closely you will see that I said historically the odds are against him. And they are. I also said he could be an exception to the rule. There are exceptions but they are exceptions. Get it?
As a player develops doubles are very much a good indicator of home run power. I never denied that. But Hafner spent 3 years in Single-A and another year in Double-A. By the time he spent two years in AAA he was overaged and you can't take his stats at face value. What I said was that statistically it was very unlikely to become a 40 HR hitter. I still stand by that.
I understand you have an agenda with me, Jackal, and you are making a feeble attempt to one-up me or embarrass me. But come on, do Mother Canada proud. You can do better than that. I have faith in you. Nice classy sig btw!