## I want to create my own Projections!

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### I want to create my own Projections!

Most of us take projections from big services. But we never really think about how they come up with these projections.

What i want to do is create my own set of projections and be able to back each one up mathematically.

I want to start off by using 3 year averages, but then after that I am lost...

Basically, what do you guys who make your own projections use to formulate them? And do you have any methods that you think are worth a shot (I will test them for you)? Help me please
"I am ready to meet my Maker. Whether my Maker is prepared for the great ordeal of meeting me is another matter."
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GucciBaseballs
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Madison and Wveres i know you guys make your own, and i am really looking foward to hearing what you guys use.
"I am ready to meet my Maker. Whether my Maker is prepared for the great ordeal of meeting me is another matter."
- Sir Winston Churchill
GucciBaseballs
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This is barebone basic, and I've never done them myself, although I'd like to try sometime. But, take 70% of the players' last year, 20% of their stats two years ago, and 10% of their stats three years ago. Just a thought though. For rookies, I'm not sure!!!
Chuckles
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I use 3-5 year averages to develop my projections but I don't have a magic mathematical formula that pops out golden eggs.

What I do is a create a profile of each hitter based on three year averages. What I mean by a profile is a matchup of the stats with the player's age and experience while producing those stats.

Using the Lahman database I then (this is automated) compare that profile against every player who has ever played looking for matching profiles. A matching profile doesn't neccesarily have the same stats but it does have the same trends, meaning that the two players compared matured in a similar way.

All the matches are then compared to find the average trend for each player that matches the profile. I then apply that trend to the players stats from last year. I can't take credit for this system I copied it from another source but you will find (at least I have) that this system is much more accurate than projection formulas.

Does that make sense? If not I will try to explain it better LOL.
Maine has a good swing for a pitcher but on anything that moves, he has no chance. And if it's a fastball, it has to be up in the zone. Basically, the pitcher has to hit his bat. - Mike Pelfrey
Amazinz
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Interesting, but doesnt that take a hell of a long time? And what is the Lahman database?
Bloody Nipples
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Chuckles wrote:This is barebone basic, and I've never done them myself, although I'd like to try sometime. But, take 70% of the players' last year, 20% of their stats two years ago, and 10% of their stats three years ago. Just a thought though. For rookies, I'm not sure!!!

I actually disagree with this formula. I have run these calculations before with dollar values and the results make me think this formula is garbage. Basically about 2/3 of all players have a change of \$5 or greater in their value from their previous year, while 1/3 stay within \$5 value of the previous year.

So basically, if anything the 2 previous years should be valued higher than the last.
"I am ready to meet my Maker. Whether my Maker is prepared for the great ordeal of meeting me is another matter."
- Sir Winston Churchill
GucciBaseballs
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Bloody Nipples wrote:Interesting, but doesnt that take a hell of a long time? And what is the Lahman database?

This is the Lahman database. A must have for any serious stats junkie and its free!

It would take a long time to do by hand but computers are wonderful inventions.
Maine has a good swing for a pitcher but on anything that moves, he has no chance. And if it's a fastball, it has to be up in the zone. Basically, the pitcher has to hit his bat. - Mike Pelfrey
Amazinz
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Amazinz wrote:
Bloody Nipples wrote:Interesting, but doesnt that take a hell of a long time? And what is the Lahman database?

This is the Lahman database. A must have for any serious stats junkie and its free!

It would take a long time to do by hand but computers are wonderful inventions.

Thanks. I'll check that out in a second. Do you use excell to get the projections?
Bloody Nipples
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I use Access and Excel but I do most of the work by writing a script or a small program.
Maine has a good swing for a pitcher but on anything that moves, he has no chance. And if it's a fastball, it has to be up in the zone. Basically, the pitcher has to hit his bat. - Mike Pelfrey
Amazinz
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Amazinz wrote:I use Access and Excel but I do most of the work by writing a script or a small program.

thanx for the help amazinz. I'm sure i can find some use for those when i make projections.

Does anybody have a set of formulas that they like to use. I know some people have some age based formulas.
"I am ready to meet my Maker. Whether my Maker is prepared for the great ordeal of meeting me is another matter."
- Sir Winston Churchill
GucciBaseballs
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