I was checking out Pujols' splits cuz I just made an offer of Overbay, Sheets, and C. Tracy for Pujols and Isringhuasen.
Here is the link: http://fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/v ... 116#413116
Anyway, a couple people said the offer was too lopsided and that the other owner wouldn't consider it, and while that's probably true that he won't accept it, I don't think it's as lopsided as most people think. In fact, I wouldn't have even made the offer if I didn't need saves.
The average owner always puts too much emphasis on last season's stats, which is why that person still thinks that Overbay is a fluke and that Pujols is still the #1 fantasy hitter in the NL. But if you look at Pujols' splits for the past 3 seasons, there is a disturbing trend:
2002: .315 vs. right, .309 vs. left (6 pts higher vs. right)
2003: .350 vs. right, .387 vs. left (37 pts higher vs. left)
2004: . 240 vs. right, .481 vs. left (241 pts higher vs. left)
2002: .555 vs. right, .579 vs. left (24 pts higher vs. left)
2003: .646 vs. right, .732 vs. left (86 pts higher vs. left)
2004: .471 vs right, .889 vs. left (418 pts higher vs. left)
As a right-handed hitter, Pujols is expected to perform better vs. lefties, and he has hit them harder and harder every year. Unfortunately for him, the only left-handed starters in the NL Central are: Pettite, D. Davis, Capuano, and Oliver Perez.
But he has been successful in the past because he has hit righties hard as well. In 2002, he actually had a higher BA vs. righties, and his slugging % splits were very close. In 2003, he hit righties hard but KILLED lefties, widening the gap. This season he has continued his dominance over lefties, but his numbers vs. righties has dropped significantly.
If this trend continues, he isn't going to be the stud that everyone makes him out to be. Have right-handed pitchers finally figured him out?