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Where will Beltran go?

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Postby Tavish » Wed May 19, 2004 2:07 pm

matmat wrote:please don't throw at me the small market -- large market arguments, and the revenue sharing ideas, salary caps etc. etc. etc. I understand all that. nonetheless I find it troubling that a lot of owners seem to be interested in extracting every red cent from their franchises and not reinvesting in them. There is a trade-off between viewing a team as a money-making proposition and as valuable entertainment/source of pride for a community. (think Modell and Cleveland). I think (and I very well may be wrong) that a lot of the owners are miserable at running major league clubs... digging up a few oil wells or selling a startup is not the same as setting up media contracts, marketing the team nationwide... if you give show the people living near the stadium that it is "their team" they are more likely to buy caps, jerseys, TICKETS (refreshments) etc. etc.

The problem is you can't talk about one (owners investing in the team) without talking about the other (small market vs big market). Of course the small market fans would love to see the big-time talent resigned or the high-priced free agents join the club, but it simply can not and will not happen. To be truly competitve year in and year out the Royals would need to spend an extra 75-100 million a year. All that money does is buy you an outside chance, it guarentees nothing. Increased mechandise and ticket sales revenue will come no where near recovering that money. I can't, in a sane mind, say David Glass is an ass for not losing 50 million a year on a team that *might* be successful.

Small market teams are basically relegated to emulating the Marlins. Stockpile enough young talent to create a 2-3 year window and take your shot. The Twins, Royals, and Marlins all have the luxury of being in divisions that are somewhat seperated from the big money boys (until Atlanta gets back on track) and will see that window open up more often. Crappy as it is, its the way the game economics are.[/counter rant]

pogotheostrich wrote:The Royals haven't done a great job of getting a return on trading soon to be free agents (Damon and Dye).

Baird is awful at picking free agents but in trades he has a pretty decent track record. Especially considering he is often dealing from a cornered position. Guys like Damon and Dye weren't traded because of a need to upgrade, they were traded because there was no other choice. Neifi Perez for Dye didn't quite work out but it was a good move. The Damon deal got Angel Berroa and a closer they needed at the time (Roberto Hernandez).

frog99 wrote:Ealier in the season KC talked to LA Dodgers about Edwin Jackson for Beltran and were turned down.
My money is still on the Dodgers. Assuming that A) The Dodgers are still in the race after the All-Star Break and B)They are willing to part with Jackson and Looney. Doubtful but perhaps.

My second guess is the Cubs for Mark Grudzielanek, Sergio Mitre and Kyle Farnsworth. Reason why? Its the only other plausible trade rumor I have heard.
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Postby stumpak » Wed May 19, 2004 2:08 pm

There a bunch of teams who could take him on for a couple of months and have more to offer than the Yanks. Marlins, for example, proved last year they will give up young talent to win now, and they have the pitching to move to KC to trump any other offer. Phils could trade Byrd and a young pitcher, even the Twins would take on that contract for 2 months and have the young talent to make the Royals think twice about not trading him within the division. I think any number of teams is more likely than the Yankees, they are like a guy who has maxed out his credit card (minor league talent, not dollars being the commdoity here).
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Postby Zito is God » Wed May 19, 2004 2:15 pm

I can't see the Red Sox getting him. They have so many FA they NEED to sign that this is truly the "now or never" year. They cannot afford to spend MIORE money on getting Beltran when they have little chances of resigning their current players. (IMO pedro, Williamson, Lowe , Varitek and ortiz NEED to be resinged) Sox can't afford all of them though.
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Postby with_pleasure » Wed May 19, 2004 4:23 pm

Derek Lowe hardly needs to be resigned. His ERA and WHIP are astronomical and he can no longer hide behind the "Todd Walker is a defensive liability" argument. I don't think he'll be signed back. The Sox will sign David Ortiz, Varitek (Kelly Shoppach is still a couple years away) and Nomar, which I believe will happen.

Pedro is a big maybe. I think the Sox will try to lure a couple young free agents to replace him and Lowe. I'm thinking Carl Pavano might find his way back to Boston, and I think Theo's been high on Odalis Perez for a while too.

Depending on what they do with Damon's salary and Williamson's and/or Kim's salaries, I think they'll have enough to sign Beltran this year. A Damon/Williamson package could bring a very good replacement for fragile, emotional, and perpetually-losing-his-shit Derek Lowe, and it would free up a bunch of $ from Damon's ballooned contract.

I'm just saying it could happen.
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Postby EK711 » Wed May 19, 2004 4:42 pm

Tavish wrote:My money is still on the Dodgers. Assuming that A) The Dodgers are still in the race after the All-Star Break and B)They are willing to part with Jackson and Looney. Doubtful but perhaps.

There's so many complexities to work out and I really haven't seen the point in getting involved in these debates. But I did want to point out that the Dodgers just had Andrew Brown subtracted from their prospect pitching depth as the PTBNL in the Milton Bradley deal. Could this be to free themselves of the Milton trade to allow them to make other talks? The tribe had until June 30th to decide on what guy they wanted... Interesting because Cleveland was saying that they would take the entire time to decide on who the PTBNL would be.. Is Shapiro (Cleveland GM) helping out the Dodgers by freeing them to talk with KC without having to worry about who the Indians get?

I also want to say that I am pleased to get another possible great arm in the Cleveland farm system :-D .

Feel free to debate away again, makes for good reading. ;-D
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Postby matmat » Wed May 19, 2004 4:50 pm

bjm97 wrote:While I live in a big market and root for a big market team having a bigger checking account hasn't helped us much in recent years. It starts at the top and you can only reinvest so much money into has beens/over the hill players before the team falls apart.

you root for the mutts?

as for beltran... if he doesn't get resigned in KC I would *love* to see him go to either atlanta or seattle.
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Postby reiser » Wed May 19, 2004 5:00 pm

rolenfan wrote:
matmat wrote:I would really, really, really, really really *takes deep breath* really, really, really, really really like it if Beltran stayed in KC.

I agree with you matmat - KC is the US version of the Expos. Great farm team. What a shame.

When Sweeny decided to take less $$$ and stay in KC, it looked like a good sign to the community. They thought maybe ownership would build on that. Now it doesn't appear to be that way and the fans are already disappointed.

I don't have an answer, but I share your disappointment. It would be good for baseball and good for KC if they could keep Beltran.

hey, not to knock Beltran, but he is the one driving this. Beltran is the one who hired Scott Boras and is looking for the $20 Million check. not that I necessarily blame him, but revenue sharing is not a salary cap.
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Postby rlee » Wed May 19, 2004 5:47 pm

The Beltran situation is very complex. If the Royals do trade him, it will clearly be as a "rent-a-player" because Boras is his agent and there' no way he'll sign before the end of the year. So I really don't know how much other teams will spend to get him for perhaps as little as 2 months. :-o

I'll be very surprised if e winds up with the Mets. Their past relationships with Boras have been horrible (A-Rod) and I would be surprised if they would give up some prized prospects for the short term :-P

It's anyone's guess :-?
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