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Strasburg OR Kimbrel - plus minor leaguers (WHIR)

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Strasburg OR Kimbrel - plus minor leaguers (WHIR)

Postby BUCCOFAN » Fri Feb 02, 2018 12:02 am

Deep 15 team Fantasy Point Auction Keeper League, (with semi Dynasty flair to it) players get 3 year contracts when drafted........One owner is looking to unload some salary and get some cheaper keepers back, I am in a position to add a "STAR" pitcher, we start 9 pitchers (SP or RP) weekly, being a fantasy points league heavy leaned to top pitching, who would you rather have?

P - S.Strasburg @$30 with 2 years remaining, my projections have him scoring 587FP (health is always an issue with this guy, but maybe he finally breaks thru on a clean season)
OR
P - C.Kimbrel @$27 with 2 years remaining, my projections have him scoring 630FP (all be it, closers are unpredictable)

Owner is not really willing to move Strasburg, but i wonder if I should be asking (pushing) for him instead. He wants the following from me for Kimbrel.

I GET:
P - C.Kimbrel $27(2) (stud Closer, him and Jensen are prob only 2 in tier 1 for that position)

HE GETS:
1B - J.Bell $1(2) (2 years of control left @ that value)
OF - K.Tucker $1(1) (top prospect with 3 years of control left @ that value) OR 3B - N.Senzel $8(1) (top prospect with 3 years of control left @ that value)

We can protect a max. of 5 minor league players, (see below) my current off-season options are pretty rich, but I don't want to "throw" away Senzel or Tucker,
MY OPTIONS:
Player / contract year
2B - K.Hiura $1(1)
3B - N.Senzel $8 (1)
OF - R.Acuna $3 (1)
OF - K.Tucker $1 (1)
OF - J.Soto $2 (1)
OF - C.Frazier $1 (2) (tried to use him as the piece in the trade, no dice)
P - A.Reyes $1 (1)
P - M.Keller $2 (1)
P - Y.Alvarez $3 (1)

Leave a link will help in return,
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Re: Strasburg OR Kimbrel - plus minor leaguers (WHIR)

Postby SecretAgentMan » Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:35 am

Ehhh. I hate paying for closers. Pts league so I suppose it does not really matter which one you get, you just have to hope Strasburg stays healthy\Kimbrel does not regress from last year.

That said, it would depend on who is available at the auction and at what price. If I can buy a Kluber or Kershaw for say $40, I rather do that then spend $30 and prospects on Strasburg. If not, then the price here is pretty decent for what you are getting. Send him the $8 minor leaguer instead of the $1 guy. Most rookies are complete guesswork and end up being busts to various degrees. Getting a top SP or top closer for 2 years at OK prices in return is a pretty decent return assuming you have the salary space.
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Re: Strasburg OR Kimbrel - plus minor leaguers (WHIR)

Postby HOOTIE » Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:25 am

I would pass on Kimbrel.
Strasburg i would look at.
Bell is great at that price.
5 minor leaguers
Acuna
Tucker
Senzel
Soto
Reyes
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Re: Strasburg OR Kimbrel - plus minor leaguers (WHIR)

Postby BUCCOFAN » Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:40 pm

SecretAgentMan wrote:Ehhh. I hate paying for closers. Pts league so I suppose it does not really matter which one you get, you just have to hope Strasburg stays healthy\Kimbrel does not regress from last year.

That said, it would depend on who is available at the auction and at what price. If I can buy a Kluber or Kershaw for say $40, I rather do that then spend $30 and prospects on Strasburg. If not, then the price here is pretty decent for what you are getting. Send him the $8 minor leaguer instead of the $1 guy. Most rookies are complete guesswork and end up being busts to various degrees. Getting a top SP or top closer for 2 years at OK prices in return is a pretty decent return assuming you have the salary space.


Both Kluber and Kershaw look like they will be protected, the following ACES are going back in to the auction according to my mock keeper list.
Scherzer/Sale/Bumgarner/Syndergaard/deGrom then begins to drop off, Hendricks/Archer/Cole/Nola/Carlos Martinez/Ohtani/Darvish/Hamels/Cueto etc.

So I would like to add an ACE before the action to my current keepers.

12 KEEPERS STARTING ROSTER TEMPLATE:
C-
C-
1B-P.Goldschmidt $46 (2)
2B-Y.Moncada $12 (2)
3B-J.Lamb $18 (2)
SS-C.Seager $3 (3)
MI-J.Baez $1 (3) (2B/SS)
CI-A.Bregman $1 (3) (3B/SS)
OF-M.Margot $1 (2)
OF-
OF-
OF-
OF-
UT-J.Bell $1 (2) (1B)
P-R.Hill $1 (3)
P-S.Gray $4 (2)
P-A.Cobb $1 (2)
P-J.Taillon $2 (3)
P-
P-
P-
P-
P-
TOTAL = $91 ($169 left for the auction)
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Re: Strasburg OR Kimbrel - plus minor leaguers (WHIR)

Postby SecretAgentMan » Sat Feb 03, 2018 10:30 am

BUCCOFAN wrote:
SecretAgentMan wrote:Ehhh. I hate paying for closers. Pts league so I suppose it does not really matter which one you get, you just have to hope Strasburg stays healthy\Kimbrel does not regress from last year.

That said, it would depend on who is available at the auction and at what price. If I can buy a Kluber or Kershaw for say $40, I rather do that then spend $30 and prospects on Strasburg. If not, then the price here is pretty decent for what you are getting. Send him the $8 minor leaguer instead of the $1 guy. Most rookies are complete guesswork and end up being busts to various degrees. Getting a top SP or top closer for 2 years at OK prices in return is a pretty decent return assuming you have the salary space.


Both Kluber and Kershaw look like they will be protected, the following ACES are going back in to the auction according to my mock keeper list.
Scherzer/Sale/Bumgarner/Syndergaard/deGrom then begins to drop off, Hendricks/Archer/Cole/Nola/Carlos Martinez/Ohtani/Darvish/Hamels/Cueto etc.

So I would like to add an ACE before the action to my current keepers.

12 KEEPERS STARTING ROSTER TEMPLATE:
C-
C-
1B-P.Goldschmidt $46 (2)
2B-Y.Moncada $12 (2)
3B-J.Lamb $18 (2)
SS-C.Seager $3 (3)
MI-J.Baez $1 (3) (2B/SS)
CI-A.Bregman $1 (3) (3B/SS)
OF-M.Margot $1 (2)
OF-
OF-
OF-
OF-
UT-J.Bell $1 (2) (1B)
P-R.Hill $1 (3)
P-S.Gray $4 (2)
P-A.Cobb $1 (2)
P-J.Taillon $2 (3)
P-
P-
P-
P-
P-
TOTAL = $91 ($169 left for the auction)



Scherzer or Sale for say 40 at auction would be prefereable to me than spending $30 on Strasburg and having to give up prospects. It all comes down to cost and it does not really matter whether it is kept or attained at auction. Now if these guys go for 50+, then you can make the argument it is better to pay 30 for Strasburg, but that really depends on your league and the auction inflation. Simply put, Scherzer and Sale are better and more reliable aces than Strasburg. My 2 cents.
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Re: Strasburg OR Kimbrel - plus minor leaguers (WHIR)

Postby BUCCOFAN » Wed Feb 07, 2018 1:29 pm

SecretAgentMan wrote:
BUCCOFAN wrote:
SecretAgentMan wrote:Ehhh. I hate paying for closers. Pts league so I suppose it does not really matter which one you get, you just have to hope Strasburg stays healthy\Kimbrel does not regress from last year.

That said, it would depend on who is available at the auction and at what price. If I can buy a Kluber or Kershaw for say $40, I rather do that then spend $30 and prospects on Strasburg. If not, then the price here is pretty decent for what you are getting. Send him the $8 minor leaguer instead of the $1 guy. Most rookies are complete guesswork and end up being busts to various degrees. Getting a top SP or top closer for 2 years at OK prices in return is a pretty decent return assuming you have the salary space.


Both Kluber and Kershaw look like they will be protected, the following ACES are going back in to the auction according to my mock keeper list.
Scherzer/Sale/Bumgarner/Syndergaard/deGrom then begins to drop off, Hendricks/Archer/Cole/Nola/Carlos Martinez/Ohtani/Darvish/Hamels/Cueto etc.

So I would like to add an ACE before the action to my current keepers.

12 KEEPERS STARTING ROSTER TEMPLATE:
C-
C-
1B-P.Goldschmidt $46 (2)
2B-Y.Moncada $12 (2)
3B-J.Lamb $18 (2)
SS-C.Seager $3 (3)
MI-J.Baez $1 (3) (2B/SS)
CI-A.Bregman $1 (3) (3B/SS)
OF-M.Margot $1 (2)
OF-
OF-
OF-
OF-
UT-J.Bell $1 (2) (1B)
P-R.Hill $1 (3)
P-S.Gray $4 (2)
P-A.Cobb $1 (2)
P-J.Taillon $2 (3)
P-
P-
P-
P-
P-
TOTAL = $91 ($169 left for the auction)



Scherzer or Sale for say 40 at auction would be prefereable to me than spending $30 on Strasburg and having to give up prospects. It all comes down to cost and it does not really matter whether it is kept or attained at auction. Now if these guys go for 50+, then you can make the argument it is better to pay 30 for Strasburg, but that really depends on your league and the auction inflation. Simply put, Scherzer and Sale are better and more reliable aces than Strasburg. My 2 cents.


Thanks for the feedback,

I am hesitant in moving guys like Tucker and Senzel who I think will help me this year as a in season callup, and he is insisting on either one, in a package for Kimbrel, I offered Senzel with Bell for Strasburg and he rejected it. Looks like he is going to keep Strasburg and still try moving Kimbrel. I have began to look elsewhere, only problem is there isn't many top pitchers available either they are going back into the auction or are being kept. I tried for Carrasco @ $24 which is a steal, but that owner won't budge either. Was offered the following guy, Gerrit Cole. Its a gamble, but I think he can benefit with pitching on a top club like the Astros (Verlander and Keuchel to feed off of) look what the Astros did for Morton last year..... who knows?

Deal offered to me
I GET:

P - G.Cole $24 (2) (2 years left @ that value) my projections have him @ 414 Fantasy Points.
1B - G.Bird $3 (3) (last year of his contract @ that value, I really like this guy as a sleeper, everyone thought he would bust out last year, but injuries killed him)

I TRADE AWAY:
1B - J.Bell $1 (2) (2 years left @ that value, really like the guy, but I am set @ 1B with Goldie and Bird can slide in @ CI for me)
OF - J.Soto $2 (1) (3 years of control, intriguing prospect but I can't keep them all........then keep the following 5 (2B-Hiura $1/3B-Senzel $8/OF-Acuna $3/OF-Tucker $1/P-Reyes $1)

Sure Cole @ $24 might be a tad high, but in this FANTASY POINTS league format, (15 TEAMS) pitching is a premium they usually score the most points and there is upside here. with my mock keeper list the following are going to be available in the auction. Scherzer/Sale/Bumgarner/deGrom (maybe)/Nola/Archer/Syndergaard/Carlos Martinez/Hendricks/Ohtani/Cole/Cueto..... not much Tier 1 or Tier 2 SPs there, like to assure myself with a guy like Cole who could be a SP2, Thoughts?
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Re: Strasburg OR Kimbrel - plus minor leaguers (WHIR)

Postby SecretAgentMan » Wed Feb 07, 2018 5:57 pm

Run away. Cole at $24 is ridiculous. Just pay what it takes at auction to get a top SP and be done with it imo. Overpaying for medicority is not a path to success imo.

This type of thing is not uncommon in auction keepers. You basically have to play the hand you have as best you can and hope you can fall into the next great thing\make the right calls at the auction.
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Re: Strasburg OR Kimbrel - plus minor leaguers (WHIR)

Postby BUCCOFAN » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:03 am

SecretAgentMan wrote:Run away. Cole at $24 is ridiculous. Just pay what it takes at auction to get a top SP and be done with it imo. Overpaying for medicority is not a path to success imo.

This type of thing is not uncommon in auction keepers. You basically have to play the hand you have as best you can and hope you can fall into the next great thing\make the right calls at the auction.


Agree Cole @ $24 may look bad, Problem is its gonna be tough to get ELITE pitching @ the auction. (Owners are crazy in this league) Remember as stated its a 15 team league, pitchers generally score more then position players, that's why salaries for pitchers are HIGH, and its not uncommon for a pitcher of say Scherzer or Sale to reach $60 in our auction. Kershaw went for 60 last year (gonna be kept)...... Kluber is a $42 keeper at the moment, Bumgarner was in the $40's deGrom is $38 etc. my program has Cole at about $20 value for the 414FP he is projected to get. so he is about $4 over, not that bad, I bet he goes for this in our auction this year due to being a Houston Astro. So you think I am better off trading one of my prospects Tucker OR Senzel with Josh Bell for Kimbrel @ $27? Kimbrel is projected to score 630FP, far more then Cole. Maybe that is the better bet. Then try for Scherzer or Sale @ the auction, since I have allot of cheap talent kept in Bregman Seager, Baez, Margot, Hill, Cobb, Gray, Taillon etc.....
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Re: Strasburg OR Kimbrel - plus minor leaguers (WHIR)

Postby SecretAgentMan » Thu Feb 08, 2018 2:12 pm

I would point out that if pitchers score a lot more than hitters, then the model is broken.

That said, I would still just pay the 50+ for Sale or Scherzer and be done with it assuming you can afford it. Yes the loons are may be out in force, but trading for mediocrity at that price point is just not worth it imo. If Cole is the best you can get, then just bypass it and concentrate your dollars elsewhere. Cole is not going to be a difference maker barring some massive breakout. If you are weak in pitching, you are still going to be weak in pitching with Cole in all liklihood. In my book, you either fix the problem by paying what it takes to get a true stud or you make due and hope you can get some value at the draft, some prospects pan out, you get people on the wire that break out in April or May. Plus, maybe the better play is to go with a couple of top hitters and hammer the offense home. You are playing points not Roto in this case so it really does not matter beyond replacement value which position you throw your dollars into.

As for Kimbrel, not a fan of trading for closers, but that deal could work for you, esp. in a points league where it really does not matter where you get the points from.
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Re: Strasburg OR Kimbrel - plus minor leaguers (WHIR)

Postby BUCCOFAN » Mon Feb 12, 2018 2:22 pm

SecretAgentMan wrote:I would point out that if pitchers score a lot more than hitters, then the model is broken.

That said, I would still just pay the 50+ for Sale or Scherzer and be done with it assuming you can afford it. Yes the loons are may be out in force, but trading for mediocrity at that price point is just not worth it imo. If Cole is the best you can get, then just bypass it and concentrate your dollars elsewhere. Cole is not going to be a difference maker barring some massive breakout. If you are weak in pitching, you are still going to be weak in pitching with Cole in all liklihood. In my book, you either fix the problem by paying what it takes to get a true stud or you make due and hope you can get some value at the draft, some prospects pan out, you get people on the wire that break out in April or May. Plus, maybe the better play is to go with a couple of top hitters and hammer the offense home. You are playing points not Roto in this case so it really does not matter beyond replacement value which position you throw your dollars into.

As for Kimbrel, not a fan of trading for closers, but that deal could work for you, esp. in a points league where it really does not matter where you get the points from.


Thanks again for your feedback and advice, agreed Cole could be a bust, $24 isn't cheap.....going back to Kimbrel with the other owner, we can't find a match with a deal, thinking he wants too much of my Prospect base, but I can only keep 5 of them, so end up losing 3-4 good prospects back into the pool. Might as well get something for them, and keep the "secondary" prospects now, but in a year from now those "secondary" guys could be better then Tucker etc. So I am thinking about circling back and trying to get Kimbrel PLUS. the plus is JD.Martinez......sure he is unsigned now and a Boras client, but I think he will either be in Boston or Arizona, both are great Fantasy locations. Thoughts on me proposing this offer?

I GET:
OF - JD.Martinez $22 (2) (can keep for 2 more years @ that value)
P - C.Kimbrel $27 (2) (can keep for 2 more years @ that value) (STUD Closer next to Jensen they are probably the only tier 1 guys in the league)

I TRADE AWAY:
1B - J.Bell $1 (2) (2 years of control @ that value, I have Goldie @ 1B next 2 years, and Senzel coming for my CI slot this year)
OF - K.Tucker $1 (1) (3 years of control, top 15 consensus prospect in all publications, might be up by July this year)
P - A.Reyes $1 (1) (3 years of control @ that value, hate moving him, but I know he had interest in him earlier in talks) (he might be pretty much nill value this year cause of the TJS rehab, could be in the pen most of the year, but future is soooooo bright, who knows)

Good offer? he is looking to cut salary on his keepers, I am looking to add some legit talent. I think its a substantial offer in a semi dynasty style keeper league.

MY STARTING KEEPERS - 15 Team Fantasy Points League
POSITION/PLAYER/SALARY/CONTRACT YEAR

C -
C -
1B - P.Goldschmidt $46 (2)
2B - Y.Moncada $12 (2)
3B - A.Bregman $1 (3) (3B/SS)
SS - C.Seager $3 (3)
MI - J.Baez $1 (3) (2B/SS)
CI -
OF - JD.Martinez $22 (2)
OF - M.Margot $1 (2)
OF -
OF -
OF -
UT -
P - C.Kimbrel $27 (2)
P - R.Hill $1 (3)
P - S.Gray $4 (2)
P - A.Cobb $1 (2)
P - J.Taillon $2 (3)
P -
P -
P -
P -
TOTAL = $121 ($260 Cap, leaves me $139 to fill roster above in the auction)

MINORS: (5 Max carry over)
2B - K.Hiura $1 (1)
3B - N.Senzel $8 (1)
OF - R.Acuna $3 (1)
OF - J.Soto $2 (1) (not Tucker, but still a top 50 guy now, and could vault up the ladder this time next year)
P - M.Keller $2 (1) (not Reyes, but still a top 20 prospect in MLB)
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