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2nd half break out players to target

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2nd half break out players to target

Postby garretterik » Mon Jul 06, 2015 2:40 pm

A couple of years ago when Adam LaRoche was with the Pirates he would suck in the first half of the season and regularly hit about 50 points higher of an average after the All-Star break. There was no explaining it he just regularly played better in the second half of the season. (LaRoche splits have come down the past few years and he sucks this year). However, I was wondering if there are any players that you are targeting for huge second halves.

Are there players who are average or normal that you anticipate will turn it around in the second half? Why? (Buy-low candidates)
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Re: 2nd half break out players to target

Postby lastingsgriller » Mon Jul 06, 2015 4:15 pm

If a player breaks out in the 2nd half, but no one at the cafe is around to comment on it, does the breakout actually happen?
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Re: 2nd half break out players to target

Postby garretterik » Tue Jul 07, 2015 5:23 pm

I guess I have to go.
1. Jose Abreu - I know there is a small sample size, but I like Jose Abreu to have a big second half. He hit 60 points higher post All Star Break last year. Granted major league pitchers now have more film on him and he could fall victim to the sophomore slump. But I think there is just too much talent and already starting to see it as his average the past month is 20 points higher than rest of season.
2. Jose Fernandez - Not really fair since he was injured and will only have 2 pre-All Star starts, but Jose looked great in first start and I predict a monster 2nd half.
These are two safe break out bets.
3. Neal Walker - A bit more obscure. I actually dropped Walker earlier this year for Panik. However the power has been way down this year and everything else has been near career average. Also Walker has been very hot the past week (2 of his 6 season HRs) coming now.
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Re: 2nd half break out players to target

Postby garretterik » Wed Jul 08, 2015 12:48 pm

I am not a sabremetrics guy, but both Lance Lynn and Michael Pineda are top 10 FIP guys, but aren't top 20 even in my league in points. Which means that they have been unusually unlucky or victims of poor defense. Also both had stronger 2nd halves last year (granted Pineda was hurt in first half last year and Lynn this year). So these are two other candidates to put up bigger numbers than they are now. The other one who has been unlucky is Tyson Ross.
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Re: 2nd half break out players to target

Postby Element » Fri Jul 10, 2015 4:30 pm

Ross has few very large strikes against him.

1. Ross is sporting a 4.6% BB9. That's pretty bad. The past couple of years may be an anomaly. His MiLB BB9 numbers were also pretty meh.
2. His a big guy. He's long and stays very upright when he delivers. It's a lot of moving parts to repeat over and over.
3. According to FanGraphs, the Padres are the 2nd worst defensive unit in the majors. This isn't doing his 62% GB% any favors. This is the same issue that guys like Carrasco, Kluber & Salazar have in Cleveland. I can't say with 100% confidence that I would buy any of these guys, especially Ross. Perhaps if you had a lot of ground to pick up and needed to be a aggressive with an acquisition, I could see targeting someone like Kluber or Carrasco.

Some other guys that may be worth a look in the 2nd half:

Kemp - Swing is starting to look a little bit better again.
Puig - Owners are frustrated. A hot steak is coming.
Cano - See both of the above.
Melky - No real reason. I just feel it.
Billy Hamilton - His BABIP is very low despite all of the steals. Imagine if he had normal luck.
Soler - He's back to keeping 2 hands on the bat instead of the helicopter. Good things to come!
Wong - Have faith in your gut!
Duda - He's just in a horrible funk right now. He'll snap out of it soon!
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Re: 2nd half break out players to target

Postby JGuilbault11 » Mon Jul 13, 2015 1:20 pm

To touch on the FIP thing, it was kind of like Clay Buchholz earlier in the year. Average lines and one poor outing against the Yankees in April - but a really good FIP and look how he has turned out for the rest of the first half. Unfortunately he can only pitch about 110 innings a year when he is on his game, but that is a different story. I believe Carrasco will finish with a ERA in the low threes come the end of the season. The thing with Ross is his walk rate, and combine that with a .332 BABIP, it will be frustrating. Also Ross sucks at holding runners on, so walks turn in to doubles at times. If people sell off on Carrasco and Ross - I would snag them for the right deal.
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