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Rebuild in a Keeper - Need Opinions about Future Direction

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Rebuild in a Keeper - Need Opinions about Future Direction

Postby The Loveable Losers » Tue Jun 02, 2015 12:53 pm

I'm in a 14 team h2h league with 21 roster slots (c,1b,2b,3b,ss,3of,util,2sp,2rp,3p,5bn). We use k/9 instead of k's with a 30ip minimum per week. It's a keeper league where trading of draft picks, etc. is very active and we keep 6 players on our team for as long as we'd like with no round-based penalty (in other words the draft starts at player #85 after each team's 6 keepers are entered into Yahoo). We also have an up to 8 player minor league roster and can keep all of those players on the minor league roster until they go over 130ab/50ip. Some minor rules that have major effects on the minor league rosters though - 1) if a guy goes over 130ab/50ip after week 22 in the season you can still keep them as a minor leaguer until opening day of the following season (meaning they're essentially a free keeper still even though they went over) and 2) we can designate a single minor leaguer that either has no major league experience or starts the season in the minors as a 'franchise player' that even if they go over can be kept for the following season.

So all that out of the way, I've been rebuilding since early March with this team. Some of my moves worked out better than others but I'm pretty happy with the process and results in general. At this point I've got the following assets:
1) A solid prospect draft for next year - We draft 3 rounds each year to fill in around our prospects that have been promoted. Right now I've got all 3 of my picks (and since we do reverse order of standings and my team isn't very good this year my 1st rounder should be very early) as well as one other team's 3rd round pick.
2) Great prospects - I've done a lot of trades here and this was one of my main focuses. Current prospects are SP Touki Toussaint (ETA 2017-2018), OF Manuel Margot (ETA 2017), SP Braden Shipley (ETA 2016), SS Tim Anderson (ETA 2016), SP Kohl Stewart (ETA 2016), SS/3B Corey Seager (ETA 2016), 2B Micah Johnson (ETA Now), 3B Maikel Franco (ETA Now). Really hoping Seager manages to stay down all year or that the team pulls a Kris Bryant and tries to get the extra year of service time so I can franchise him next year. Micah Johnson is this year's franchise player.
3) A ridiculous 2016 draft - I've done a lot of trading here as well. In this league picks aren't just picks - they're the easiest currency to move in trades and I've done a lot of moving in and out both with picks to keep the trades flowing. At this point I'm sitting on 2 1st round picks, 2 2nd, 2 3rd, a 4th, 2 5th, 2 6th, 2 7th, an 8th, and a 13th. These picks may be moved for players at some point or I might even bring in more and then I may move the volume of good picks to move up to the 1st pick overall (usually some crazy player available at that point since some teams have more good keepers than they can keep) or move a few for 2017 picks to even out future drafts.
4) A good young core of potential keepers - In somewhat decent order of value (as close as I can get in a minute) I'd say it's Starling Marte, Jose Fernandez, Joc Pederson, Sonny Gray, Eric Hosmer, Devon Travis, Travis d'Arnaud, Christian Yelich, Jason Heyward, Tsuyoshi Wada, Trevor Bauer, Jason Hammel, Elvis Andrus, Yasmani Grandal, and Nick Castellanos.
5) A great bullpen - I love speculating on saves and this year's already given me one pick upgrade on dealing away a temporary closer. Right now I have A.J. Ramos, Sergio Romo, Carson Smith, and Ryan Madson on my roster. I always try to win but if I can deal these guys for picks or package them for other upgrades it helps me in giving me a better chance at a good lottery pick in next year's draft as well as a better prospect pick so they're highly fungible.

My strategy so far has been to keep young players with potential over proven players on the downside. I did some pre-season post-draft trades like moving Albert Pujols post-draft for Joc Pederson and moving David Price and spare parts for Eric Hosmer, Micah Johnson, Sonny Gray, Corey Seager, and a pick upgrade. Right now I'm heavily invested in trying to get Julio Urias, going so far as to offer both Sonny Gray and Travis d'Arnaud for Urias + a 1st and 5th round pick, but the other owner isn't biting yet. I've also looked into trying to shake lose Manny Machado although the other owner would rather move Moustakas. I've also looked at moving pitching or Joc Pederson along with Hosmer for Rizzo and hoping that might go somewhere. I love what Rizzo's doing this year with regards to bb and k rates.

What I'm wondering is if anyone sees anything that I'm missing with this rebuild. Especially in the keeper area, does it look like I can build a solid 6 guys from that list of potential keepers? Are there any struggling young players I should be targeting in trades? Like I mentioned, the league is pretty active but depending on which owner you're dealing with it can be anywhere from easy to make a mutually beneficial trade, to easy to make a trade but only if you're clearly losing on perceived value, to impossible to trade because the owner is one of the 2 or 3 that just doesn't stay active on the trading front, so which guys I try to get can also be limited by who owns them. I feel like I'm in a great position though in late May as someone that purposely did not contend this year to attempt to feed some of the top teams key pieces in return for a huge boost to my chances in 2016 and beyond.
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Re: Rebuild in a Keeper - Need Opinions about Future Directi

Postby bobellis75 » Fri Jun 05, 2015 12:47 pm

I think you're on the right track...I was going to say that Andrus and Castellanos are very weak at short and third but you have a couple of prospects on the way to help there (especially Seager). I also like Franco a lot and think he could turn into a nice 3B option for you.

If you could get Urias...I'd be all over it. Don't overpay...but then again...could be the next King Felix/Dwight Gooden (hopefully minus the cocaine) type of phenom.
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Re: Rebuild in a Keeper - Need Opinions about Future Directi

Postby The Loveable Losers » Fri Jun 05, 2015 2:09 pm

bobellis75 wrote:I think you're on the right track...I was going to say that Andrus and Castellanos are very weak at short and third but you have a couple of prospects on the way to help there (especially Seager). I also like Franco a lot and think he could turn into a nice 3B option for you.

If you could get Urias...I'd be all over it. Don't overpay...but then again...could be the next King Felix/Dwight Gooden (hopefully minus the cocaine) type of phenom.


And what I love about Urias (and Seager for that matter) is that they're the type of prospects likely to produce from Day 1. That's a mistake I made for awhile in this league where I just looked at prospect rankings and not at guys that were huge ceiling young guys. With our league structure a prospect that can't play his way into top-84 player contention within his first season and a half is mostly worthless. Yes, you get to use them for a bit, but in a 14-team mixed league you can probably get better players on the FA list. Guys like Abreu last year, Kris Bryant this year, etc, make a difference for their teams and essentially add a free keeper to their owner's rosters.

Unfortunately I don't think Urias is likely to happen. I've tried what I thought was overpaying and still haven't gotten the other owner to budge. Right now I'm trying to shed some guys that I've got enough depth to give up on and make a run at least at being decent and trying to make the playoffs or win the consols (which gives you some good draft lottery compensation). I managed to turn A.J. Ramos into Scott Kazmir and a pick upgrade, picked up Wada and Trevor Bauer, and got Tanaka back. Once Jose Fernandez comes back I'd have the following SP's: Jose Fernandez, Sonny Gray, Masahiro Tanaka, Trevor Bauer, Scott Kazmir, Jason Hammel, and Tsuyoshi Wada. That's actually a heck of a pitching staff with how they've all looked. I don't have any closers now though so I'm trying to turn some of those guys you'd mentioned - the Andrus, Castellanos, even Yelich - into a couple closers to complement that starting pitching staff and Sergio Romo/Carson Smith that I already have on roster. The hitting's honestly looking good enough to keep me in the running now and if I get a really good result this week like I've been getting (thank you Joc Pederson!) I could compete this year without moving any of the pieces that I need for 2016.
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Re: Rebuild in a Keeper - Need Opinions about Future Directi

Postby bobellis75 » Fri Jun 05, 2015 4:46 pm

well like I said...you're definitely moving in the direction (in my humble opinion). Too bad on Urias...I've got a shot at him in a league but not sure if I'm willing to pay the cost. I probably should pull the trigger. Feel free to chime in :) viewtopic.php?t=492253

Nice work on picking up Wada and Bauer, by the way...and Tanaka. You'll be pretty loaded with Fernadez coming off the DL.
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