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What's up with Wacha?

PostPosted: Fri May 08, 2015 8:56 pm
by eatyun
He's pitched 33 innings and he only has 18 strikeouts, his ERA and WHIP are great, can't figure out why he's not striking people out, is it a fluke or something I should worry about?

Re: What's up with Wacha?

PostPosted: Fri May 08, 2015 10:20 pm
by bigh0rt
Seems to be pitching to more contact, inducing more ground balls. Still has the good command. Bottom line he's not a front line starter. Mid-3 ERA and I'm trying go sell him if I've got him right now. Even if he gets his K9 back up to 7, there's no way he carries an elite ERA.

Re: What's up with Wacha?

PostPosted: Tue May 12, 2015 9:51 am
by The Loveable Losers
bigh0rt wrote:Seems to be pitching to more contact, inducing more ground balls. Still has the good command. Bottom line he's not a front line starter. Mid-3 ERA and I'm trying go sell him if I've got him right now. Even if he gets his K9 back up to 7, there's no way he carries an elite ERA.


I've never read this anywhere but it seems like St. Louis is one of those organizations that preach the 'pitch-to-contact' mantra. If you look at their pitchers it's all low-bb/9, high-gb/fb ratio guys. Some are better than others at it but it seems to be an organizational focus. Adam Wainwright showed that you could be a fantasy ace and still work that low-bb/9, high-gb/fb ratio but it's a tough line to skate. Unless you have a higher than average k/9 rate the higher BABIP on ground balls eats up your gains from the low-bb/9 which makes your whip a break-even proposition versus an average bb/9 pitcher. The high-gb/fb ratio does help in reducing hr/9 but some recent studies have shown that when a fly ball hitter faces a ground ball pitcher the hitter wins. That means that while you might hold down your Christian Yelich's and Eric Hosmer's of the world, guys with tilt to their swing are still going to get theirs against you.

I think the St. Louis recipe is a great one for real baseball. You fill the zone, get quicker innings, save pitches on your arm, and avoid big, walk-fueled innings while mitigating home run damage somewhat. It doesn't play quite as well for fantasy owners.