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Potential ERA Risers & Sinkers (05/06/15)

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Potential ERA Risers & Sinkers (05/06/15)

Postby bigh0rt » Wed May 06, 2015 4:35 pm

Potential Risers:
Code: Select all
       Player            ERA           xFIP       Differential
1. Nick Martinez         0.84          4.69          -3.85
2. Dallas Keuchel        0.80          3.30          -2.50
3. Mike Pelfrey          2.63          4.89          -2.26
4. Sonny Gray            1.67          3.91          -2.24
5. Wei-Yin Chen          2.83          5.06          -2.23
6. Michael Wacha         1.93          4.03          -2.10
7. Anthony DeSclafani    2.03          4.11          -2.08
8. Zack Greinke          1.56          3.57          -2.01
9. Shelby Miller         1.66          3.65          -1.99
10. AJ Burnett           1.45          3.39          -1.94
10. Doug Fister          2.61          4.55          -1.94

(On the Fringe: Max Scherzer -1.84, Hector Santiago -1.71, CJ Wilson -1.66, Dan Haren -1.65, Scott Kazmir -1.62)

The Rub:
The good news is we know that most of these guys are pitching at an unsustainable rate, sub-1 ERA and the like. However, there's some potential actual information to be taken from here as well. Some have speculated that Shelby Miller has 'turned a corner' with his new home in Atlanta, when in actuality, his BABIP is 60 points lower than his career average, while his K/9 and BB/9 have not changed drastically, and he's stranding an unsustainable 88.8% of runners he puts on. Something's gotta give. He's a legitimate Sell High candidate who people may actually buy. Not that you'd be hamstrung to keep him after stabilization, but if you can find a trade partner who is buying his April into May, slap that hog and sell. Also, with Doug Fister's abysmal strikeout rate and potential for drastic ERA regression, he's another guy I would be adding to sweeten the pot of a deal, to put something over the edge and even give the appearance of overpaying, when really he will likely end up being a player dump, because when your ERA is potentially higher than your K/9, you're gonna have a bad time. On the other side of the coin, while we can see and expect regression from a guy like Dallas Keuchel (whose K/9 is also a Roto killer, but easier to stomach in H2H), his xFIP of 3.30 is still something I think we'd all be satisfied with for the remainder of the season, should his ERA trend towards that. Same goes for AJ Burnett and Zack Greinke.

Potential Sinkers:
Code: Select all
       Player            ERA           xFIP       Differential
1. Bud Norris            9.75          4.95          4.80
2. Kyle Kendrick         8.73          4.77          3.96
3. Clay Buchholz         6.03          2.95          3.08
4. Drew Hutchison        7.47          4.67          2.80
5. Kyle Lohse            7.01          4.40          2.61
6. Joe Kelly             5.72          3.21          2.51
7. Mark Buehrle          6.75          4.61          2.14
8. Rubby de la Rosa      5.40          3.41          1.99
9. Jon Lester            4.71          2.83          1.88
10. Clayton Kershaw      3.72          1.86          1.86

(On the Fringe: Scott Feldman 1.78, Jason Marquis 1.76, John Danks 1.75, CC Sabathia 1.72, Danny Salazar 1.69, Corey Kluber 1.63)

The Rub:
Again, similarly to those listed above, we know, generally, which of these guys stink, and which guys we should maybe be more patient with, or stash on our bench instead of dropping outright. We know we're avoiding Kyle Kendrick like a prostitute with a questionable pimple on her lip in most leagues. However, it is also encouraging to see that Clayton Kershaw should be potentially returning to his superhuman status soon enough. For me personally, it's the guys like Rubby de la Rosa and Drew Hutchison who are most intriguing to me. These are guys whose ownership percentages are trending downward, and are becoming available in many leagues, and may be worth grabbing and stashing, to see if they can come out the other side of these early struggles. Same goes for both Boston Red Sox starters. Joe Kelly's K/9 and BB/9 are excellent, and if this early 5+ ERA of his is even remotely close to the mid-3 that it could be, he's a great target for you to add as a 'throw in', even possibly to end up on the wrong end of a 2-for-1 trade. He's fueled by an extremely potent offense, with substantial Win potential, and I'm personally trying to flip another one of my slow starters (I'm looking at you Jimmy Nelson) for him, if possible.

Thoughts? Comments? Concerns? Let's hear 'em.
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Re: Potential ERA Risers & Sinkers (05/06/15)

Postby bigh0rt » Wed May 06, 2015 4:51 pm

Full List:
Code: Select all
Name                    ERA   xFIP   DIFF
Bud Norris             9.75   4.95   4.80
Kyle Kendrick          8.73   4.77   3.96
Clay Buchholz          6.03   2.95   3.08
Drew Hutchison         7.47   4.67   2.80
Kyle Lohse             7.01   4.40   2.61
Joe Kelly              5.72   3.21   2.51
Mark Buehrle           6.75   4.61   2.14
Rubby de la Rosa       5.40   3.41   1.99
Jon Lester             4.71   2.83   1.88
Clayton Kershaw        3.72   1.86   1.86
Scott Feldman          5.50   3.72   1.78
Jason Marquis          5.22   3.46   1.76
John Danks             6.20   4.45   1.75
CC Sabathia            5.40   3.68   1.72
Danny Salazar          3.81   2.12   1.69
Corey Kluber           4.62   2.99   1.63
Jeremy Guthrie         6.52   4.93   1.59
Jered Weaver           6.29   4.72   1.57
Kyle Hendricks         5.61   4.12   1.49
Anibal Sanchez         5.11   3.69   1.42
Jeff Locke             4.85   3.44   1.41
Matt Shoemaker         5.40   4.00   1.40
Shane Greene           5.56   4.16   1.40
Chris Tillman          6.23   4.91   1.32
James Paxton           5.08   3.79   1.29
Jeremy Hellickson      5.20   3.96   1.24
Phil Hughes            5.02   3.84   1.18
Jose Quintana          5.28   4.17   1.11
Mat Latos              5.60   4.49   1.11
Stephen Strasburg      4.73   3.71   1.02
James Shields          3.72   2.76   0.96
Travis Wood            4.40   3.44   0.96
Tyson Ross             4.15   3.37   0.78
Yordano Ventura        4.94   4.16   0.78
Rick Porcello          4.38   3.65   0.73
Gio Gonzalez           3.86   3.16   0.70
Jeff Samardzija        4.38   3.90   0.48
Jason Hammel           3.73   3.26   0.47
Justin Masterson       4.71   4.24   0.47
Michael Pineda         2.97   2.61   0.36
Eric Stults            4.91   4.55   0.36
Alex Wood              4.32   4.01   0.31
Cole Hamels            4.14   3.83   0.31
Lance Lynn             3.07   2.77   0.30
Matt Garza             4.58   4.34   0.24
Yovani Gallardo        4.05   3.82   0.23
Nathan Eovaldi         3.81   3.63   0.18
Dillon Gee             3.86   3.69   0.17
Roberto Hernandez      4.25   4.10   0.15
J.A. Happ              3.51   3.38   0.13
Jordan Zimmermann      4.15   4.09   0.06
Collin McHugh          3.41   3.35   0.06
Chase Anderson         3.38   3.33   0.05
Wily Peralta           4.35   4.34   0.01
Tom Koehler            4.67   4.68   -0.01
Jimmy Nelson           4.03   4.05   -0.02
Carlos Martinez        3.64   3.68   -0.04
Jerome Williams        4.08   4.16   -0.08
Danny Duffy            3.45   3.58   -0.13
Jake Arrieta           2.84   2.97   -0.13
Andrew Cashner         3.16   3.37   -0.21
Bartolo Colon          2.90   3.13   -0.23
Vance Worley           3.90   4.19   -0.29
Nate Karns             4.05   4.41   -0.36
John Lackey            3.69   4.10   -0.41
Tim Hudson             3.78   4.19   -0.41
Matt Harvey            2.41   2.87   -0.46
Johnny Cueto           2.72   3.25   -0.53
Julio Teheran          3.82   4.36   -0.54
Alfredo Simon          3.13   3.68   -0.55
Gerrit Cole            1.76   2.32   -0.56
Jordan Lyles           4.25   4.86   -0.61
Jacob deGrom           3.34   3.95   -0.61
R.A. Dickey            4.38   5.00   -0.62
Chris Heston           2.51   3.18   -0.67
Madison Bumgarner      3.03   3.72   -0.69
Jarred Cosart          2.97   3.75   -0.78
Felix Hernandez        1.73   2.53   -0.80
Trevor Bauer           3.38   4.20   -0.82
Mike Leake             3.03   3.87   -0.84
Brandon Morrow         2.73   3.58   -0.85
David Price            2.93   3.82   -0.89
Josh Collmenter        2.76   3.77   -1.01
Jon Niese              2.40   3.48   -1.08
Chris Archer           1.64   2.74   -1.10
Eddie Butler           3.81   5.03   -1.22
Colby Lewis            3.00   4.31   -1.31
Miguel Gonzalez        2.59   3.92   -1.33
Francisco Liriano      1.95   3.37   -1.42
Jake Odorizzi          2.21   3.66   -1.45
Edinson Volquez        2.10   3.62   -1.52
Kyle Gibson            3.56   5.09   -1.53
Tim Lincecum           2.40   3.95   -1.55
Aaron Harang           2.35   3.94   -1.59
Scott Kazmir           1.62   3.24   -1.62
Dan Haren              2.70   4.35   -1.65
C.J. Wilson            2.73   4.39   -1.66
Hector Santiago        3.14   4.85   -1.71
Max Scherzer           1.26   3.10   -1.84
Doug Fister            2.61   4.55   -1.94
A.J. Burnett           1.45   3.39   -1.94
Shelby Miller          1.66   3.65   -1.99
Zack Greinke           1.56   3.57   -2.01
Anthony DeSclafani     2.03   4.11   -2.08
Michael Wacha          1.93   4.03   -2.10
Wei-Yin Chen           2.83   5.06   -2.23
Sonny Gray             1.67   3.91   -2.24
Mike Pelfrey           2.63   4.89   -2.26
Dallas Keuchel         0.80   3.30   -2.50
Nick Martinez          0.84   4.69   -3.85
bigh0rt
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Re: Potential ERA Risers & Sinkers (05/06/15)

Postby eatyun » Wed May 06, 2015 5:36 pm

Maybe its because he played for the Cardinals and I watched him rise through the minor leagues, but I do believe that Shelby Miller will live up to the promise he once had, He won't be this good of course, but I think hes developing into a legitimate fringe ace type.
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Re: Potential ERA Risers & Sinkers (05/06/15)

Postby bigh0rt » Wed May 06, 2015 6:35 pm

eatyun wrote:Maybe its because he played for the Cardinals and I watched him rise through the minor leagues, but I do believe that Shelby Miller will live up to the promise he once had, He won't be this good of course, but I think hes developing into a legitimate fringe ace type.

He's really the same pitcher he's always been, though, which is miles from being a fringe Ace. He's got a mid-7 K/9, which is paltry for any major pitcher, and a BB/9 over 3. Those are both over the course of his career, and so far in 2015. The changes that have happened so far in 2015 are two-fold. One, he's inducing far more ground balls than he ever has before. He's a career 40.1% GB guy, and so far this year's he's at 48.5%, which is a substantial jump. I don't know what has changed (if anything) to reduce the number of fly balls he's allowing (his LD% is consistent with his career), but that's something that could be a noticable change, and help him as long as he's got a good defense behind him (Andrelton Simmons certainly doesn't hurt). The other thing he's doing is stranding 88.8% of his runners, which is not only a ridiculously high rate for anybody, but it's also nearly 10% higher than his 79.5% career mark. And he's doing this all with a .206 BABIP, compared to a .262 career mark, which is already pretty low. There's nothing I can see that says this jump is skill based, or that we should expect it to continue. If he continues with the ground balls, we may see a slight drop in his ERA, into the 3.50 range, but I see nothing at all that says anything other than mid-level average starter. There's nothing wrong with that at all. I'd be happy to have him. Just be sure that's all you're paying for if you're buying, and see if you can't sell him to a guy exactly like you who is a believer.
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